Description

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It looks at momentum using a short lookback period to respond faster to changes in the market.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (97.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 214.1% of US sectors short lookback is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (44.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 86% is greater, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.8% of US sectors short lookback is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 23.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (13.2%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 26.4% in the last 5 years of US sectors short lookback, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (21%)
  • Compared with SPY (17.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 22.5% is greater, thus worse.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside deviation of 18.5% in the last 5 years of US sectors short lookback, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15%)
  • Looking at downside volatility in of 15.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (12.1%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.58) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.88 of US sectors short lookback is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.91 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.61).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of US sectors short lookback is 1.26, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.8) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 1.3, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.88 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 10 in the last 5 years of US sectors short lookback, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (9.33 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 11 , which is greater, thus worse than the value of 8.63 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -37.3 days of US sectors short lookback is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -26.3 days, which is lower, thus worse than the value of -22.1 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 254 days of US sectors short lookback is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (325 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 254 days is smaller, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the average days below previous high of 52 days in the last 5 years of US sectors short lookback, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (122 days)
  • Compared with SPY (89 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 66 days is smaller, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors short lookback are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.