Description of US sectors mean reversion

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It works with short term mean reversion criteria thus penalizing recent winners and favoring sectors that have recently corrected.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics of US sectors mean reversion (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 59.7%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (77%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return in of 49.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (53.9%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 9.8%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (12.1%) in the same period.
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 14.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (15.4%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the volatility of 14.9% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.3%)
  • Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 14.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (12.8%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside deviation of 16.8% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.8%)
  • Compared with SPY (14.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 16.6% is higher, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.49 in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.72)
  • During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 0.83, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 1.01 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 0.44, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.65) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (0.88) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.71 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 5.98 , which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (3.97 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (4.09 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 3.89 is smaller, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -18 days in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -10.3 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 334 days of US sectors mean reversion is higher, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 175 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 139 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (42 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 78 days of US sectors mean reversion is higher, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (37 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 42 days is higher, thus worse.

Performance of US sectors mean reversion (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of US sectors mean reversion
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Allocations

Returns of US sectors mean reversion (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors mean reversion are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.