Description

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It works with short term mean reversion criteria thus penalizing recent winners and favoring sectors that have recently corrected.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 99.6% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (90.8%)
  • Compared with SPY (75.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 23.9% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 14.9%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.8%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 7.4%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 20.7% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (17%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 23% of US sectors mean reversion is greater, thus worse.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 20% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (15.2%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 16% of US sectors mean reversion is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (10.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 13.9% is greater, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 0.54, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.67) in the same period.
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 0.25 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.2).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 0.77, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.97) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 0.35, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 1.78 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 9.61 in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (8.42 )
  • Compared with SPY (3.49 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 8.56 is larger, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -26.1 days of US sectors mean reversion is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (-18.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -25.7 days is lower, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 266 days in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
  • Compared with SPY (87 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 265 days is larger, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The average days under water over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 90 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (20 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 94 days is larger, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors mean reversion are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.