Description

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It works with short term mean reversion criteria thus penalizing recent winners and favoring sectors that have recently corrected.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (107.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 117.6% of US sectors mean reversion is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 1.8%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 43.5% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.9% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15.8%)
  • Compared with SPY (12.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 0.6% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 23.6% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17.9%)
  • Compared with SPY (18.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 24.3% is larger, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 16.4% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (12.5%)
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 17.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (12.6%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.74) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.61 of US sectors mean reversion is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is -0.08, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 0.56 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 0.88, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (1.07) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is -0.11, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.82 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (8.48 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 8.76 of US sectors mean reversion is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (5.54 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 11 is larger, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -26.1 days in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days)
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -26.1 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (-18.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum days under water over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 266 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 266 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (199 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average days under water over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 73 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (44 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 107 days is larger, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors mean reversion are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.