Description of US sectors mean reversion

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It works with short term mean reversion criteria thus penalizing recent winners and favoring sectors that have recently corrected.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics of US sectors mean reversion (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (67.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 82% of US sectors mean reversion is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 55.3%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 46.6% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (10.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 12.7% of US sectors mean reversion is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 15.8%, which is greater, thus better than the value of 13.6% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 15%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (13.3%) in the same period.
  • Looking at volatility in of 14.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (12.5%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 17%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (14.6%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 16.3%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 14.2% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.64) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.68 of US sectors mean reversion is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.94 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.89).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.58) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.6 of US sectors mean reversion is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 0.82 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.78).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 7.15 in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (3.96 )
  • Compared with SPY (4.01 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 3.43 is lower, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -20.9 days in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -9.4 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -19.3 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 362 days of US sectors mean reversion is larger, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 111 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 139 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (41 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 76 days of US sectors mean reversion is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (36 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 28 days is lower, thus better.

Performance of US sectors mean reversion (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of US sectors mean reversion
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Allocations

Returns of US sectors mean reversion (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors mean reversion are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.