Description of US sectors mean reversion

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It works with short term mean reversion criteria thus penalizing recent winners and favoring sectors that have recently corrected.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics of US sectors mean reversion (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 58.5%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (67.1%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (51.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 47% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (10.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 9.7% of US sectors mean reversion is smaller, thus worse.
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 13.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (14.8%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 15% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.5%)
  • Compared with SPY (12.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 14.5% is larger, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 16.8% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.8%)
  • Compared with SPY (14.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 16.8% is greater, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 0.48, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.62) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (0.96) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.77 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 0.42, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.56) in the same period.
  • Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 0.67 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.84).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 6.53 , which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (3.99 ) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 3.84 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 4.1 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -19.3 days in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -10.3 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -19.3 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 356 days of US sectors mean reversion is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 148 days is larger, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (42 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 81 days of US sectors mean reversion is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (36 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 36 days is higher, thus worse.

Performance of US sectors mean reversion (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of US sectors mean reversion
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Allocations

Returns of US sectors mean reversion (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors mean reversion are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.