Description of US sectors mean reversion

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It works with short term mean reversion criteria thus penalizing recent winners and favoring sectors that have recently corrected.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics of US sectors mean reversion (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return of 82.1% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (68.7%)
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 54.7%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 47.9% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 12.7%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (11%) in the same period.
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 15.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (14%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The volatility over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 15%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (13.3%) in the same period.
  • Looking at volatility in of 14.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (12.5%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 17% of US sectors mean reversion is greater, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 16.4%, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 14.2% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.64) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.68 of US sectors mean reversion is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.93, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.91 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.58) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.6 of US sectors mean reversion is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (0.81) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.81 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 7.16 in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (3.96 )
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 3.45 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (4.01 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -20.9 days of US sectors mean reversion is smaller, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -9.4 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 362 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 111 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (139 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The average days below previous high over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 76 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (41 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 29 days, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 36 days from the benchmark.

Performance of US sectors mean reversion (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of US sectors mean reversion
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Allocations

Returns of US sectors mean reversion (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors mean reversion are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.