Description

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It works with short term mean reversion criteria thus penalizing recent winners and favoring sectors that have recently corrected.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of 44.4% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (67.8%)
  • Compared with SPY (75%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 5% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (11%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 7.7% of US sectors mean reversion is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 1.6%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 20.6% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 23.5% of US sectors mean reversion is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (15.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 21.6% is higher, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 16.6% in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (12%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk is 15.3%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 10.4% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.22 in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.49)
  • Compared with SPY (1.17) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of -0.04 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.31 in the last 5 years of US sectors mean reversion, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.7)
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of -0.06 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.73).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Downside risk index over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 11 , which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (8.45 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (3.21 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 9.78 is higher, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -26 days of US sectors mean reversion is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (-18.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -25.8 days is smaller, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 266 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 237 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (87 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average days below previous high over 5 years of US sectors mean reversion is 98 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (117 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 72 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (17 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors mean reversion are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.