Description of US sectors long lookback

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It looks at momentum using a long lookback period to catch longer term trends across U.S. sectors.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics of US sectors long lookback (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or performance over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 78%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (72.2%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return is 42.3%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 48.3% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 12.2%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (11.5%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (14.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 12.5% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 13.4%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (13.2%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (12.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 13.3% is greater, thus worse.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 14.9% of US sectors long lookback is greater, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (14.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 15.4% is greater, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 0.73, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.68) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.75, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 0.93 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.65 in the last 5 years of US sectors long lookback, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.62)
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 0.65, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.82 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (3.95 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 4.78 of US sectors long lookback is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (4 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 5.76 is higher, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -22.4 days of US sectors long lookback is smaller, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -22.4 days is lower, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 153 days in the last 5 years of US sectors long lookback, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (187 days)
  • Compared with SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 153 days is higher, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the average days below previous high of 37 days in the last 5 years of US sectors long lookback, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (41 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 45 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 36 days from the benchmark.

Performance of US sectors long lookback (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of US sectors long lookback
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Allocations

Returns of US sectors long lookback (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors long lookback are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.