Description of US sectors long lookback

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It looks at momentum using a long lookback period to catch longer term trends across U.S. sectors.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics of US sectors long lookback (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (76.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 86.8% of US sectors long lookback is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (48.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 46.3% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 13.3%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (12.1%) in the same period.
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 13.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (14.1%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 13.3%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 13.6%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 12.9% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 14.9% of US sectors long lookback is larger, thus worse.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 15.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (14.6%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.7) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.81 of US sectors long lookback is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.81, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.9 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 0.73, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.64) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 0.71, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.79 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 5.07 , which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (3.99 ) in the same period.
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 5.84 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (4.1 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is -22.4 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -22.4 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (-19.3 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 269 days of US sectors long lookback is higher, thus worse.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 269 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (139 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the average days under water of 59 days in the last 5 years of US sectors long lookback, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (42 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 68 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 36 days from the benchmark.

Performance of US sectors long lookback (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of US sectors long lookback
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Allocations

Returns of US sectors long lookback (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors long lookback are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.