Description of US sectors long lookback

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It looks at momentum using a long lookback period to catch longer term trends across U.S. sectors.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics of US sectors long lookback (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return of 77.8% in the last 5 years of US sectors long lookback, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (63%)
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 39.5%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 39.8% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (10.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.2% of US sectors long lookback is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 11.7%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 11.8% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 13.5%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 13.6%, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 12.7% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 15.1% in the last 5 years of US sectors long lookback, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.9%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 15.6%, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 14.4% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 0.72, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.57) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (0.73) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.68 is smaller, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.52) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.64 of US sectors long lookback is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (0.65) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.59 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Index of 5.06 in the last 5 years of US sectors long lookback, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (4.01 )
  • Compared with SPY (4.08 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 6 is higher, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -22.4 days of US sectors long lookback is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -22.4 days, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of -19.3 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of US sectors long lookback is 227 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 227 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 139 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (41 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 50 days of US sectors long lookback is larger, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 60 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 36 days from the benchmark.

Performance of US sectors long lookback (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of US sectors long lookback
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Allocations

Returns of US sectors long lookback (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors long lookback are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.