Description of US sectors long long lookback

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It looks at momentum using a long lookback period to catch longer term trends across U.S. sectors.

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics of US sectors long long lookback (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of US sectors long long lookback is 73.1%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (68.2%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 39.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (47.7%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (11%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 11.6% of US sectors long long lookback is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 11.8%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 13.9% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the volatility of 13.5% in the last 5 years of US sectors long long lookback, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.2%)
  • Looking at volatility in of 13.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (12.4%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 15.1% in the last 5 years of US sectors long long lookback, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.6%)
  • Looking at downside volatility in of 15.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (14%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of US sectors long long lookback is 0.67, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.64) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 0.7, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.92 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of US sectors long long lookback is 0.6, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.58) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 0.6, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.81 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (3.95 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 4.68 of US sectors long long lookback is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 5.59 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (4 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of US sectors long long lookback is -22.4 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -22.4 days is smaller, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of US sectors long long lookback is 153 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (131 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 153 days is greater, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average days below previous high over 5 years of US sectors long long lookback is 35 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (39 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 40 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (33 days).

Performance of US sectors long long lookback (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of US sectors long long lookback
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Allocations

Returns of US sectors long long lookback (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors long long lookback are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.