BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-1.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 36.9% of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is greater, thus better.
• Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 39.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (13.2%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

• Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 6.5% in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.3%)
• Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 11.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (4.3%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 7.4% in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (6.1%)
• Compared with AGG (5.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 7.9% is larger, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• The downside deviation over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 5.3%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (4.3%) in the same period.
• Looking at downside deviation in of 5.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to AGG (3.6%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.45) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.54 of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is higher, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (0.33) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.18 is larger, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

• The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 0.76, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.64) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 1.69, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.48 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (8.91 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 4.57 of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 1.79 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 1.81 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -11 days in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-17.7 days)
• Compared with AGG (-5 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -6.7 days is lower, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (1116 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 545 days of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is lower, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 86 days, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 195 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Looking at the average days below previous high of 143 days in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (503 days)
• Compared with AGG (52 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 24 days is lower, thus better.