The BUG strategy is one of our more conservative strategies. The strategy does not attempt to predict prices or the future state of the economy. It holds a broad diversified number of assets that complement each other, each performing well in a different economic environment such as inflation, deflation, growth and stagnation. It is meant for long term, steady growth and low risk.

It inherits part of its logic from Harry Browne's tried-and-true Permanent Portfolio and the publicized workings of the All-Weather portfolio.

The strategy has been updated (as of May 1st, 2020) to allocate 40%-60% to our HEDGE sub-strategy. The statistics below reflect the updated model.

- US Market (SPY: S&P 500 SPDRs)
- Long Duration Treasuries (TLT: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond)
- Gold (GLD: Gold Shares SPDR)
- Cash or equivalent (SHY: 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds)

- Convertible Bonds (CWB: SPDR Barclays Convertible Securities)
- Inflation Protected Treasuries (TIP: iShares TIPS Bond Fund)
- Foreign Bonds (PCY: PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond)

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark AGG (2.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 59.8% of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is higher, thus better.
- Compared with AGG (-9.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 5.7% is higher, thus better.

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 9.8%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (0.4%) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 1.9%, which is greater, thus better than the value of -3.3% from the benchmark.

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark AGG (6.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 8.6% of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is higher, thus worse.
- Compared with AGG (6.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 6.7% is lower, thus better.

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 6.4% of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is larger, thus worse.
- During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 4.9%, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 4.8% from the benchmark.

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 0.85, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.31) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is -0.09, which is larger, thus better than the value of -0.86 from the benchmark.

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 1.14, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.42) in the same period.
- Compared with AGG (-1.21) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of -0.13 is larger, thus better.

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The Ulcer Index over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 4.91 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (8.33 ) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 5.68 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 10 from the benchmark.

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -19.3 days in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-18.4 days)
- Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -11 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (-17.8 days).

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The maximum days under water over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 534 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (891 days) in the same period.
- Compared with AGG (640 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 534 days is lower, thus better.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the average days below previous high of 142 days in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (346 days)
- Compared with AGG (280 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 205 days is lower, thus better.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.