Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 40.6% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
• Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 12.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (8.5%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

• Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.8%)
• Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (2.8%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 6.1%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (6%) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (6.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 5.7% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Looking at the downside volatility of 4.1% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (4.3%)
• Looking at downside volatility in of 3.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to AGG (4.6%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

• Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 0.75 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.55)
• During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.27, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.04 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

• The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 1.11, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.78) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (0.06) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.39 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (9.5 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 2.44 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 2.52 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 3.78 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is -6.6 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-18.4 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -6.6 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -9.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (1230 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 217 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (487 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 195 days is lower, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• The average days below previous high over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 66 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (612 days) in the same period.
• Looking at average days below previous high in of 54 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to AGG (191 days).