Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 44.1% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-2.4%)
• Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 11% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (-6.3%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.5%)
• During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 3.5%, which is higher, thus better than the value of -2.2% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 8.6% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (6.8%)
• During the last 3 years, the volatility is 5.4%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 7.1% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Looking at the downside volatility of 6.4% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (5%)
• Compared with AGG (5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 3.7% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.44) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.6 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (-0.66) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.19 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.59) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.8 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (-0.93) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.28 is larger, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Looking at the Downside risk index of 3.01 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (9.23 )
• Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 2.37 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to AGG (9.37 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-18.4 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -21.4 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
• Compared with AGG (-16 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -5.7 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Looking at the maximum days under water of 217 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (1111 days)
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 217 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 754 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (511 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 57 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 56 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 378 days from the benchmark.