Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-3.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 45.4% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Looking at total return in of 11.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (5.7%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 7.8%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.8%) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 3.7%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 1.9% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Looking at the volatility of 6.2% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (6%)
• Compared with AGG (6.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 5.7% is smaller, thus better.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 4.2% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus worse.
• Compared with AGG (4.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 3.9% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.55) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.85 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (-0.09) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.21 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 1.26, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.77) in the same period.
• Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 0.31 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (-0.13).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• The Downside risk index over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 2.36 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (9.43 ) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (3.81 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 2.43 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-18.4 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -6.6 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (-9.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -6.6 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 217 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (1197 days)
• Compared with AGG (487 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 162 days is smaller, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (584 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 62 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (183 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 54 days is smaller, thus better.