Description of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

The Bond Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. It is appropriate for investors looking to collect bond dividends while pursuing growth by rotating between bond sectors. The strategy evaluates and allocates to the best performing bond ETFs including treasuries, TIPS, foreign, high-yield and convertible bonds. This is a good strategy if you are looking for a safe long-term investment with low risk.

Statistics of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (15.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 48.6% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at total return, or performance in of 34.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (13.4%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the annual performance (CAGR) of 8.2% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (2.9%)
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 10.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (4.3%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (3.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 5.5% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 4.8%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 2.8% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (3.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 6.1% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus worse.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 5.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to AGG (3%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 1.04 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (0.11)
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 1.62 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.63).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.95 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (0.11)
  • Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 1.45 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.6).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 1.73 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (1.64 )
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 0.89 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to AGG (1.4 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (-4.5 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -5.3 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -3.3 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -3.5 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 290 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (331 days)
  • Compared with AGG (331 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 72 days is lower, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 53 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (115 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 16 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 90 days from the benchmark.

Performance of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy
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Allocations

Returns of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.