Description

The Bond Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. It is appropriate for investors looking to collect bond dividends while pursuing growth by rotating between bond sectors. The strategy evaluates and allocates to the best performing bond ETFs including treasuries, TIPS, foreign, high-yield and convertible bonds. This is a good strategy if you are looking for a long-term bond investment with medium risk.

The strategy has been updated (as of May 1st, 2020) to allocate 40%-60% to our HEDGE sub-strategy. The statistics below reflect the updated model.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the total return of 39.6% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (9.1%)
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 15.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (7.9%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (1.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 6.9% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 4.8%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 2.6% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 5.6% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is greater, thus worse.
  • Looking at volatility in of 6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (5.4%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 4%, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (3.6%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 4.5%, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 4.2% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 0.79, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.16) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 0.39, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.01 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.2) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.09 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 0.52 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.02).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 2.01 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (3.77 )
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 2.31 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to AGG (2.76 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is -12.8 days, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (-9.6 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -12.8 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to AGG (-9.6 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 149 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (780 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 149 days, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 442 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 37 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (262 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with AGG (149 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 38 days is smaller, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.