Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 23.9%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (2.6%) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 21.4%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 16% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 4.4%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (0.5%) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (5.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 6.7% is greater, thus better.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 5.7% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (6.1%)
• During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 5.7%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 5.7% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Looking at the downside volatility of 3.9% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (4.3%)
• Looking at downside deviation in of 3.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to AGG (3.9%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 0.33 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.33)
• Compared with AGG (0.45) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.74 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

• Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.48 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.47)
• Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 1.08 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.67).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (8.98 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 2.39 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (2.24 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 2.44 is greater, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is -6.6 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-17.8 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -6.6 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -7.4 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 246 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (1145 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 246 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (195 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (531 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 65 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (61 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 59 days is lower, thus better.