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Volatilidad: Como construir una inversión con un rendimiento de más del 50%?

En este artículo quiero explicar cómo funciona nuestra Estrategia de Rotación de Máximo Rendimiento "Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy". Esta estrategia logra muy altos retornos por invertir en fondos de volatilidad inversa. Desde 2011 hasta hoy el rendimiento anual fue de más del 55% por año. Durante el año presente el rendimiento acumulado es del 27%. El ratio de Sharpe (una estimación del retorno por unidad de  riesgo) de 2,1 es un "valor sueño" y dudo que alguien puede mostrar una estrategia con una mayor proporción.La estrategia invierte en 4 ETF diferentes: Mercado de acciones de Estados Unidos Bonos del Tesoro Volatilidad Inversa Equivalente a Efectivo

2017-03-13T18:57:08+00:00 By |0 Comments

Inversion en ETF Estrategia de rotación de mercados mundiales: 36.7% anual desde 2003

La siguiente estrategia es una de nuestros favoritos, que muchos de nuestros amigos, clientes y nosotros mismos hemos utilizado ya por algunos años. La Estrategia de Rotación de Mercados Globales (“Global Market Rotation Strategy”, GMR) La Estrategia GMR rota mensualmente entre 6 ETF diferentes. El rendimiento histórico calculado de esta estrategia desde 2003 es bastante impresionante. Rendimiento anual (CAGR) = 36.7% (S&P 500 = 8,4%) Rendimiento total a partir de 2003 = 3924% (S&P 500 = 134%) 69% de las operaciones mensuales tienen una rentabilidad positivaLos mercados globales utilizados y ETF correspondientes son: Estados Unidos Europa Mercados emergentes América Latina Región del Pacífico

2017-02-20T12:45:24+00:00 By |0 Comments

The new reviewed Bond Rotation Strategy

From the next strategy email on, the Bond Rotation Strategy will also use adaptive ETF allocation, to make is more suitable as IRA or 401k Investment Strategy. This new technique allows a 30% higher Sharpe (return to risk) ratio. Together with this change we have also changed the ETF selection from the old: AGG - iShares Core Total US Bond (4-5yr) BOND - PIMCO Total Return ETF CWB - SPDR Barclays Convertible Bond HYLD - AdvisorShs Peritus High-Yield Bond (3-4yr) SHY - Barclays Low Duration Treasury (2-yr) TLH - iShares Barclays 401k 10-Year Treasury (9-11yr) Ro the new ETF selection: CWB - SPDR Barclays Convertible Bond JNK: SPDR Barcap High-Yield Junk Bond (4-7yr) PCY: PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond (7-9yr) TLT: iShares Barclays 401k Long-Term Trsry (15-18yr) The new BRS strategy does not need the total US market bonds AGG and BOND anymore. In fact for the old strategy, these bonds have been used to simulate an intermediate mix between treasuries and corporate bonds. The new BRS strategy can now invest in any mix of these bonds due to the adaptive allocation. Also the SHY (cash) ETF is not necessary anymore, because the allocations will be automatically reduced to zero if this would be necessary. Excellent features as an IRA or 401k Investment Strategy We also go back to the passively managed JNK high yield junk bond after the actively managed HYLD junk bond was showing an extremely bad performance these last months. So better don't have any fund manager interfering with the strategies in the future. New is the emerging market sovereign debt bond PCY which gives the strategy some international diversification. TLH has been replaced by the more liquid TLT treasury ETF. All together, the strategy becomes simpler, with less ETFs, but with a significantly better performance. We recently were approached by a subscriber [...]

2017-04-20T01:18:33+00:00 By |5 Comments

Permanent Portfolio – Will We Ever Kill The Bug?

An analysis of Harry Browne´s Permanent Portfolio and further enhancements towards:  A Permanent Portfolio ETF Rotation Strategy employing Momentum, Mean Reversion, and Volatility Targeting. It’s not just cars. It’s investment strategies like the permanent portfolio, too. Vintage "all-weather" investment strategies are often simple, easy to execute and give amble 'out-of-sample' data. In other words one can see how they performed in life years after they have been proposed. And like the VW bug, they are "safe" choices. Tried and true. Can you imagine a 1965 VW running in the Autobahn? Although the essence counts for a lot, for the car to survive at today's highway speeds the tech needs to be up to date. So let’s take my favourite oldie and bring it up to speed: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio. The Permanent Portfolio by Harry Browne From Investopedia: … Browne believed that the four asset classes would thrive in one of the four possible macroeconomic scenarios that exist. Stocks would thrive during periods of economic prosperity. Bonds would do well in deflation and acceptably well during periods of prosperity. Gold during periods of high inflation would rapidly increase in value as the only true defence against a deteriorating currency. Cash would act as a buffer against losses during a routine recession or tight-money episode, and would act well in deflationary times. So let’s see how the original permanent portfolio Harry Browne first published has performed. The original rules of the All Weather Portfolio: 25% in a stock market Index ( S&P 500) 25% in Treasuries 25% in Gold. 25% in Cash or similar Not bad. Annual return is 7.1% and maximum draw-down comes in at 17.84% since 1992. For a far more detailed analysis of the so-called fail-save investment or permanent portfolio or "PP" you can see Gestaltu's excellent "PP Shakedown" [...]

2017-03-15T17:06:25+00:00 By |7 Comments

New Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy backtest charts

Here are two backtests charts of the new MYRS strategy with adaptive allocation, now also suitable for your retirement account. The annual return of the old and the new strategy is more or less the same. During low volatility markets, the return of the new strategy is probably slightly lower, however during difficult volatile years like 2014, the return of the new strategy is significantly higher and the drawdowns and the risk is reduced nearly by a factor of 2x. The slightly lower return is due to the fact that some time a part of your capital is invested in the Treasury hedge to reduce risk. An option for your retirement account? The overall risk/return (Sharpe) ratio is about 2x higher than the one of the old strategy, so there is no question, that the new strategy is significantly better and maight be a suitable option for your retirement account. See the updated performance charts also here.   If you are new to our site, here a summary of our strategy: "The Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy is our top performing investment strategie. The Strategy invests on a semi-monthly basis in two US asset classes or cash. These US asset classes are: U.S. Treasury Bonds – (EDV Vanguard Extended Duration Tsy 25+yr) Volatility – (ZIV VelocityShares Inverse VIX Medium-Term) cash – (SHY Barclays Low Duration Treasury) Treasury bonds and inverse Volatility ETFs have significant negative correlation to each other. This means, that whatever the market sentiment is, there is always one assets performing well. The strategy is a good way to profit from VIX contango without risking heavy losses during a volatility spike. The incredibily high return of this strategy does not mean that this strategy is very risky.  The strategy minimizes the risk of losses during financial crisis by switching early into Treasurys or even switching [...]

2017-03-14T22:11:11+00:00 By |10 Comments

The new enhanced Bond Rotation Strategy with adaptive allocation

On November 2013 I published the first SA article on the Bond Rotation Strategy (BRS) as excelent diversifier for a 401k Investment Portfolio. Now, 15 months later, I am presenting an important update for this strategy with adaptive allocation. Even though the old strategy has done well (see charts here: https://logical-invest.com/strategy/bond-rotation-sleep-well/), I think it is very important to constantly validate and improve any investment strategy. Markets change, ETFs change even we ourselves grow and learn. Especially as I´ve been approached by US Investors asking whether this was a suitable strategy for 401k Investment Portfolio. I am also glad to say that I am still improving my knowledge and striving to pass that knowledge as to grow the returns and limit the risk of my own investments. Approach of Universal Investment Strategy, better suited as 401k Investment Portfolio In November 2014 I presented the Universal Investment Strategy which was based on a variable allocation of the SPY-TLT ETFs (http://seekingalpha.com/article/2714185-the-spy-tlt-universal-investment-strategy). This new concept of an ETF rotation with variable allocation is very versatile and can be used on all types of strategies. For the BRS strategy, this new way to calculate allocations results in a considerably improved Sharpe (Return/Risk) ratio of the strategy. Here is the ETF selection for the BRS  Old ETF selection New ETF selection CWB - SPDR Barclays Convertible Bond CWB - SPDR Barclays Convertible Bond JNK - SPDR High-Yield Junk Bond (4-7yr) JNK - SPDR High-Yield Junk Bond (4-7yr) TLH - iShares 10-Year Treasury (9-11yr) TLT - iShares Long-Term Trsry (15-18yr) PCY - PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond (7-9yr) AGG - iShares Core Total US Bond (4-5yr) not necessary anymore BOND - PIMCO Total Return ETF not necessary anymore SHY - Barclays Low Duration Treasury (2-yr) not necessary anymore. The total allocation can go automatically below 100% An advantage of [...]

2017-04-28T16:21:44+00:00 By |5 Comments

Volatility Premium – Why we invest in ZIV and not in XIV

Several times I have been asked why we invest in ZIV (inverse mid-term volatility) and not in XIV (inverse front month volatility) in our Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy and in the "Global Market Rotation Enhanced Strategy" to harvest the volatility premium. Harvest Volatility Premium smartly After all, front month VIX Future contango is about 2-3x bigger then medium term contango. At the moment XIV profits from nearly 9% monthly VIX Futures contango. ZIV profits from about 3% monthly VIX Futures contango, or volatility premium Normally you would think that XIV should have a far better performance than ZIV, but now look at this chart of the 1 year performance. ZIV has performed very well. With 64% annual performance it performs nearly 4% better than XIV and this with much less volatility - thus allows better to harvest the volatility premium. The main problem is that both of the ETFs are inverse ETFs. This means that underlying they are constructed by shorting VIX futures. These ETFs are rebalanced every day and this results in a quite big time decay. XIV has a very high volatility of about 55% compared to only 25% for ZIV. Higher volatility means also bigger time decay losses. The 25% volatility of ZIV fits very well to the volatilities of our global market ETFs (MDY, FEZ, EEM, EPP, ILF). Rotation strategies work better, if the ETFs have more or less the same volatility. Rotation Strategy backtests - all to benefit from volatility premium If I backtest our Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy with XIV instead of ZIV, then I only get an annual performance of 31% with a volatility of 48% since 2011. With ZIV, I get 70% annual performance with only 27% volatility. This is a huge difference, which shows you, how important it is, that the ETFs [...]

2017-04-28T16:13:00+00:00 By |2 Comments

Harvesting Contango: How To Build An ETF Rotation Strategy With More Than 50% Annualized Returns

In this paper I want to explain the readers how the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy of www.logical-invest.com is built. This strategy harvests the so called Contango. Harvesting Contango by investing in inverse volatility This Strategy harvests contango and achieves very high returns investing in inverse volatility. From 2011 to today the annual performance was more than 70% per year. Year to date the performance is 40.9%. The Sharpe Ratio (Return/Risk) of 2.12 is a "DREAM VALUE" and I doubt that someone can show me a strategy with a higher ratio. The strategy invests in 4 different ETFs and harvests the contango: US Market (MDY - S&P MidCap 400 SPDRs) U.S. Treasury Bonds - (EDV Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury 25+yr) Volatility - (ZIV VelocityShares Inverse VIX Medium-Term) cash - (SHY Barclays Low Duration Treasury) only if Treasury correlation to SPY > -0.25 The Maximum Yield Strategy switches semi-monthly between these 4 ETFs. For the switching I use a ranking system like the one I explained in my SeekingAlpha article of the Global Market Rotation Strategy. The ranking system is also using 3 month historical performance and 20 day volatility. Using also volatility is quite important for harvesting contango, because it reduces the ranking of high volatile ETFs like ZIV. However, if you want to play such a rotation strategy by yourself, then you can also just look at the 3 month historical performance to benefit from contango. In this strategy the ZIV ETF is the most important performance driver. ZIV can only be backtested since 2011, so that I cannot present a longer backtest for the whole strategy, but the way the strategy is built, you can backtest parts of it for more than 10 years. Benefit from Contango The Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy is composed by several smaller sub-rotation strategies. Here is an overview of [...]

2017-04-28T16:11:29+00:00 By |2 Comments

A Global Market Rotation Strategy with an annual performance of 41.4% since 2003

The following ETF strategy is one of my favorite rotation strategies, which many of my friends, customers and I use now for some years. The Global Market ETF Rotation Strategy (GMR) The GMR Strategy switches between 6 different ETF on a monthly basis. The back tested return of this strategy since 2003 is quite impressive. Annual performance (CAGR) = 41.4% (S&P500=8.4%) Total performance since 2003 = 3740% (S&P500=134%) 69% of trades have positive return versus 31% with negative return You find the most recent performance table here. ETF These global markets and ETF are: US Market (MDY - S&P MidCap 400 SPDRs) Europe (IEV - iShares S&P Europe 350 Index Fund) Emerging Markets (EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets) Latin America (ILF - iShares S&P Latin America) Pacific region (EPP - iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan) During market corrections I invest in: US Treasury Bonds (EDV - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasuries (25+yr)) Cash or SHY (SHY - Barclays Low Duration US Treasury) Selection of the strategy ETF For the design of a well performing rotation strategy, it is important that the selected ETF are not too volatile, show longer term visible trends and have a good market volume, so that they cannot be manipulated. They all should have more or less the same volatility. The 5 global markets ETF fulfill this condition. They all are capitalized enough, so that they cannot be manipulated in the short term. Why rotating? The 5 ETFs follow slightly different economic cycles and there are long periods where one market outperforms the other until it becomes so overpriced and investors begin to remove their money from that market in order to invest in other cheaper valued markets. Looking back 12 month, we see that the US market was the clear winner and the [...]

2017-04-28T16:09:53+00:00 By |7 Comments