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A new enhanced Global Market Rotation Strategy with adaptive ETF investment allocation

Update: See the current performance of this ETF investment strategy here. A new enhanced Global Market Rotation Strategy with adaptive ETF investment allocation The GMR strategy performed well during the last 10 years. Especially during years with a strong trend in one of the 5 world markets, this strategy was able to switch early to the best ETF and stay invested until another market ETF took the lead. A known problem for such monthly rotation strategies have been years like 2014 with no clear trend in the markets. During 2014, conflicts like Syria or Ukraine or the fear that the US market may have culminated and is ready for a correction, made investors switch several times in “risk off” mode which favors safe haven assets like our long term EDV or TLT Treasury. The bad thing was, that shortly after they switched back to “risk on” mode favoring our stock market ETFs. Such a whipsaw market is bad for “switching” rotation strategies and as a result, our GMRS strategy shows a negative return for 2014. The strategy had two big monthly losses, both with foreign market ETF investment and both times because of a soaring dollar after a FED statement. In fact most of the times a full switch from a stock market ETF investment to a treasury ETF is not the best strategy. Better is to keep both stock market and Treasury ETF investment and change the allocation gradually. In January I proposed to invest 20% in a short TMV Treasury hedge which is about equal to a nearly 50% TLT hedge. This was a first approach to tell you that in such years it is better to invest in both, stock market and Treasury ETF investment. This hedge has performed extremely well in 2014. TMV is 46% up and [...]

2017-10-02T20:00:00+00:00By |0 Comments