Description

The Global Market Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. The strategy invests on a monthly basis in one of five broad global markets. It hedges the global equity exposure with variable allocation to the HEDGE sub-strategy.

Version History

December 2016 Update: We are enhancing the Treasury hedge. Before we allocated part of the portfolio to longer-term treasuries, namely the 3x leveraged ETF version, TMF. From now on we will be allocating to the best bond ETF as chosen by our Bond Rotation strategy (BRS). BRS choses from the JNK, CWB,PCY and TLT ETFs.

December 2015 Update: We are adding currency hedged ETFs in the universe that our algorithm can see. That means that we allow our algorithms to choose between a non-hedged ETF like EWG or a hedged ETF like HEWG. This allows our algorithm to input dollar strength as an additional parameter and be able to respond accordingly. This does not change the current logic, which is to bet on the best performing regions or countries. What it does is that it allows, in the case of extended dollar strength, to partially neutralize foreign currency risk for our U.S. based investors.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (69.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 90.6% of Global Market Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 15.6%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 18.6% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is 13.8%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (11.2%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 5%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 5.9% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is 9.9%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (20%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 8.4%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 16.6% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside deviation of 6.9% in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (14.4%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 5.9%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 11.6% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (0.44) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 1.14 of Global Market Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with ACWI (0.2) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.29 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is 1.63, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (0.6) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 0.42, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.29 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is 3.29 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (9.93 ) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 3.67 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 11 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -14.4 days in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (-33.5 days)
  • Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -10.4 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to ACWI (-26.4 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 281 days in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (516 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 281 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 516 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the average days below previous high of 53 days in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (132 days)
  • Compared with ACWI (191 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 74 days is lower, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Global Market Rotation Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.