Trevor

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  • in reply to: Methodology: how are strategies tested and deployed #86008
    Trevor
    Participant

    Oh, too bad. I’ve actually never used Quant Trader (not a Windows guy) or I’d try to help you. FWIW I do just fine without it, but I can understand if you like to tinker with strategies that Quant Trader might be a big selling point.

    in reply to: Methodology: how are strategies tested and deployed #86005
    Trevor
    Participant

    I can’t speak to the details of the NASDAQ 100 strategy, but just in general, LI strategies do change occasionally, but not often. Definitely not once a year. The only recent change I can think of was the addition of TIPs to the hedge sub-strategy. Technically that affected most (all?) of the strategies, but was very targeted. The only other changes I can remember were the addition of the hedge sub-strategy to the bond strategy, which was getting clobbered, and I think a change to the constituents of one or all of the core portfolios. The sense I get is not one of “let’s update this strategy so we can make the backtested results look really good”, but more of “something fundamental changed in the market that partially invalidated the assumptions of the strategy, and we need to fix that”.

    Trevor
    Participant

    I’ve been a subscriber for a few years now, and I’ve never experienced anything unexpected. That said, my baseline assumption with all models (not just financial models or LI strategies) is that the worst is to come, so my expectations are always tempered by that. In general I think LI strategies do well out of sample because they’re relatively simple and slow-moving, and thus don’t suffer from overfitting. They do occasionally update strategies in response to big structural changes in the markets (like the emergence of persistent high inflation), which might make historical returns on their website look somewhat better than they might have been for you if you were actually invested during that period. But the changes are generally small and I’d rather they make them than not. Overall I’ve been very happy with the half dozen or so strategies I’ve followed over the years.

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