[RB]

The last ~3 months have not been good for UISx3.

[RB]

Ok, thank you Frank.

I’m wondering if it would be a good idea for the UIS3x strategy webpage to display a message warning people to reconsider investing in UIS3x during unusual periods (e.g. US elections, etc.)?

[RB]

Frank,

Sorry, I’m still confused on how to read the yearly UISx3 performance numbers:

Year Historical Current
2005 —- 9.4%
2006 —- 27.7%
2007 —- 35.8%
2008 —- 10.3%
2009 —- -40.2%
2010 73.8% 64.9%
2011 80.1% 84.7%
2012 10.5% 26.1%
2013 43.3% 10.4%
2014 73.0% 41.0%
2015 -8.8% -7.5%
2016 22.3% 41.9%
2017 49.1% 55.6%
2018 -3.7% 4.8%
2019 80.5% 54.6%

Is the following correct?
(a) Historical 2010-2019 = Actual results for the old (pre-tweak) strategy.
(b) Current 2005-2009 = Back tested results for the old (pre-tweak) strategy.
(c) Current 2010-2019 = Actual results for the new (post-tweak) strategy.

Also, 2012, 2014 and 2016 have a large difference in performance between the two strategies:
(a) I know the new strategy is less aggressive, but I still wonder if the potential loss in performance is worth sleeping better at night. I know I can invest more aggressively than the strategy signals indicate, but then that defeats the purpose of subscribing to Logical Invest.
(b) Is the CAGR for the old and new UISx3 essentially the same?

Thank you,
Ron

[RB]

Alexander,

Can I please get your input on my original question? Why is UISx3 Switching to 70% UGLD for September 2019?
Is the strategy switching to gold simply because it’s the lesser of two evils (TMF and UGLD)? The part which doesn’t make sense to me is, if you know you’re going to lose money in both TMF and UGLD because of reversion to the mean (after such a large upside move), why are we investing in either ETF?

Thanks,
Ron

[RB]

Thanks RD.

[RB]

Good point, Deshan.

You’ve given me a lot to think about this weekend before the market opens on Tuesday.

Thanks,
Ron

[RB]

Thank you. It’s nice to know I’m not alone.

The only thing I can think of is that interest rates may continue going down because the ECB is expected to cut rates in September, and then the Fed would lower as well. Hopefully I’m wrong, but I think the best case scenario is that we lose a lot in TLT/UGLD before the ECB September meeting, we gain some after the meeting, and end the month flat.

This is one of those times when I really don’t like the Logical Invest strategies…emotions start to mess things up, which as you mentioned is not good.

[RB]

Thank you.

[RB]

Hello Alexander,

A follow up question on this topic, please.

So far in April, UGLD has performed poorly and has erased much of the January-March gains for UIS3x.
Of course, April is not yet over and maybe UGLD will do well between now and 30 April.
In hindsight, on 1 April 2019, it would have been better to move to 70% cash instead of 70% UGLD.
Does this strategy allow for switching into cash in some manner?

If UIS3x switched to UGLD because it would lose the LEAST amount of money (compared to the other ETFs), wouldn’t the better option be to switch to cash and not lose any money?

Thank you,
Ron

[RB]

Hi,

I’m starting to lose faith in the strategies. At least ever since I started investing back in February 2015, the performance has been pretty bad with the strategies I selected (on top of the monthly $100.00 fee to LI). As an example, telling us to invest in SPXL (for example) just in time to enjoy the largest downturn in the market in 4 years. It looks like overall performance for this year will be at best flat. Of course, this depends on the strategy(ies) one is invested in, but I think we’ve pretty much all shared the recent pain no matter what strategy you’re invested in at the moment. I will stay the course with the investment strategies I started this year, but for now, I honestly regret having embarked on this journey because I think the strategies are unable to cope with the type of environment we’ve experienced during the last year or so.

It’s like I told my last financial adviser: I don’t need any help losing money…I can do that all by myself.

Thanks,
Ron

[RB]

Could I please get a reply to the questions above?

Thanks,
Ron

[RB]

Frank, on your website (Strategies –> How to invest in our strategies), it says:

“Once you subscribe to our strategies, we will send you monthly (or more often depending on the strategy) a newsletter with the buy and sell signals of the strategies you subscribed to. We recommend you to execute these orders at your broker the next morning; this should be doable online within 15-20 minutes. Submitting your order some 2-3 days later is also OK for the strategies we use, you might only see the “turn of the month effect” to be reduced and “out-of-sync” with our reports.”

I also searched the forums for references regarding when trades should be executed. One post said trade at the open, one said trade during the first two days, one said trade at the open on the 2nd day, etc. The text above from the website says to trade at the market open after receiving the signals.

What is the final recommendation? If the recommendation is to trade anytime during the first two days (after receiving the signals), but always at the same time every month, then ok.

Does your trading recommendation apply to every single strategy?

Ron

[RB]

Hello,

I invested in the UIS-3x strategy for the first time this morning (May 1).

I bought SPXL (80% allocation) and TMF (20% allocation) at the market open. Here are my trades (sorry for the bad formatting):

Symbol Date Open Close Bought At
——————————————————–
SPXL 1-May $92.03 $93.57 $92.05
SPXL 30-Apr $92.69 $90.76 N/A
——————————————————–
TMF 1-May $83.12 $81.75 $83.12
TMF 30-Apr $83.22 $85.18 N/A

When the market closed today (May 1), I ended up with a gain in SPXL of 1.65% and a loss in TMF of -1.65%. Overall, due to the Allocations below, I gained 1%. Pretty good.

Now looking at the snapshot of the Return Tables below, I certainly did not experience the percentages in the “Symbol Ret” column.

Entry Exit Symbol Allocation Symbol Ret Strategy Ret
4/30/15 5/1/15 SPXL 80 3.1 1.67
4/30/15 5/1/15 TMF 20 -4.03 1.67

Of course, had I invested in UIS-3x prior to May 1, I would have received the “Symbol Ret” percentages. But I believe we are told to invest in strategies on either the first trading day we receive the signal or on the second trading day, and to invest at the market open (or market close or with a limit order throughout the day). But in the case above, it is very misleading since I was not invested prior to May 1, yet the “Symbol Ret” column assumes that I was.

Can I please get your feedback on this topic?

Thank you,
Ron

[RB]

Thank you, Anna.

[RB]

Thank you, Anna.

(1) Are you 100% EDV as part of one of the LI strategies, or on your own?

(2) I’m not clear on how this strategy might perform in a rising rate environment. So that led me to think about Frank’s comment that this strategy should have a positive return in such an environment. A positive return is always wonderful, of course, but if that return is 1% (for example), then it almost becomes a question of why bother. In other words, I would have to turn to some equity component/strategy.

Ron

[RB]

Can you please clarify how this strategy is expected to perform in a rising interest rate environment? If you expect the strategy to produce positive returns, that could be anything greater than 0%. If the strategy is only going to produce 1% returns, then it would not be worth investing in the strategy while rates are rising.

Thanks,
Ron

Sorry, this question is for Frank’s reply below.

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