Trial member seeking feedback from long-time subscribers

[Peticolas]

Thanks in advance for any response. I’m curious about whether your actual investment results correspond well with the historical data for the portfolios you selected. Obviously, there will be differences, but please let me know if you experienced returns or drawdowns far outside what you expected. I appreciate any responses.

[Trevor]

I’ve been a subscriber for a few years now, and I’ve never experienced anything unexpected. That said, my baseline assumption with all models (not just financial models or LI strategies) is that the worst is to come, so my expectations are always tempered by that. In general I think LI strategies do well out of sample because they’re relatively simple and slow-moving, and thus don’t suffer from overfitting. They do occasionally update strategies in response to big structural changes in the markets (like the emergence of persistent high inflation), which might make historical returns on their website look somewhat better than they might have been for you if you were actually invested during that period. But the changes are generally small and I’d rather they make them than not. Overall I’ve been very happy with the half dozen or so strategies I’ve followed over the years.

[Peticolas]

Thanks Trevor. I appreciate the input. And I agree. It’s a lot of work but you can come up with a model of 10 or 20 parameters that perfectly predicts the past, but they’re generally useless in the future. Simpler is better.

[Author]

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