Description

This is an alternative, 2 times leveraged version of the US Market Strategy using:

  • DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30
  • QLD ProShares Ultra
  • SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500

See more about the US Market Strategy.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (91.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 157.5% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 34%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 30.8% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 20.9% in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.9%)
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 10.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (9.4%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 20.4%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (21%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 17.9%, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 17.5% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 14.4% in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15%)
  • Looking at downside risk in of 12.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (12.3%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.54) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.9 of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (0.4) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.44 is greater, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 1.28, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.76) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (0.56) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.62 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (9.33 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 8.88 of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 8.86 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (8.89 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is -27.8 days, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -25.8 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (-22.4 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 392 days in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 286 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 375 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 87 days in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (122 days)
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 72 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (114 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.