Description

This is an alternative, 2 times leveraged version of the US Market Strategy using:

  • DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30
  • QLD ProShares Ultra
  • SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500

See more about the US Market Strategy.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 241%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (120.8%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 123.6%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 66.3% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 27.8%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (17.2%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 30.7%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 18.5% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 19.9% in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (18.7%)
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 22.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (22.4%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 14.2% in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.6%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk is 16.1%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 16.3% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.78) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.27 of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (0.71) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.24 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.79 in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (1.08)
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 1.75 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.98).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 6.69 in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (5.59 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 7.15 , which is higher, thus worse than the value of 6.83 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -25.8 days of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -25.8 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -33.7 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 264 days in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (139 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 165 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 139 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The average days under water over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 60 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (33 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average days under water in of 47 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (35 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.