Description

Dr. William Bernstein is a physician and neurologist as well as a financial adviser to high net worth individuals. His smart money portfolio comprises the following fund allocation:

 

40% Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade VFSTX (SCJ, SHY)

15% Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX (NYSEARCA:VTI)

10% Vanguard Small Cap Value VISVX (NYSEARCA:VBR)

10% Vanguard Value Index VIVAX (NYSEARCA:VTV)

5% Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock VEIEX (NYSEARCA:VWO)

5% Vanguard European Stock VEURX (NYSEARCA:VEU)

5% Vanguard Pacific Stock VPACX (NYSEARCA:VPL)

5% Vanguard REIT Index VGSIX (RWX, VNQ)

5% Vanguard Small Cap Value NAESX or VTMSX (VB)

 

To summarize:

40% in U.S. equities

10% in international equities

5% in emerging market equities

5% in REITs

40% in fixed income

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (80.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 37.6% of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return is 43.2%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 76.7% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the annual performance (CAGR) of 6.6% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (12.7%)
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 12.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (21%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 9.6% of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (15.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 8.6% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio is 6.7%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (11.9%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside risk in of 5.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (10.3%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.59) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.43 of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio is smaller, thus worse.
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 1.2 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.21).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.62 in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.86)
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 1.77 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.81).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 5.92 in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (8.45 )
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 1.78 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (3.3 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -17.2 days in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days)
  • Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -9.7 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (-18.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio is 563 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (87 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 124 days is greater, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (118 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 151 days of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio is larger, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 20 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 17 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.