Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (74.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 37.3% of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (69.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 44.7% is smaller, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 6.6% of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
• Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 13.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (19.3%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

• Looking at the volatility of 13% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17%)
• During the last 3 years, the volatility is 11.3%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 15% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 9% of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is smaller, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the downside risk is 7.7%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 10.1% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.31 in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.55)
• During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.95, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 1.12 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.79) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.45 of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is smaller, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (1.66) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.39 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 8.74 in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (8.43 )
• Compared with SPY (3.44 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 2.82 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -24.4 days in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days)
• During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -12.5 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -18.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 582 days of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is larger, thus worse.
• Looking at maximum days under water in of 94 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (87 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 157 days of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is greater, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (20 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 18 days is lower, thus better.