Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (127.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 129.5% of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (101.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 8.1% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 18.1%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (17.9%) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (26.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 2.7% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The volatility over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 16.1%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (23.5%) in the same period.
  • Looking at volatility in of 14.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to QQQ (22.6%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 10.4%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (16.3%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside risk in of 10.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to QQQ (14.9%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 0.97, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (0.66) in the same period.
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 0.01 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (1.06).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.5 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (0.95)
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 0.02 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (1.59).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 5.53 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (14 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (7.9 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 6.57 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -13.6 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days)
  • Compared with QQQ (-22.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -13.6 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 273 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (493 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 273 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (190 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 61 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (122 days)
  • Looking at average days under water in of 85 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (47 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.