Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (117.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 35.7% of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with QQQ (103.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 4.2% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the annual performance (CAGR) of 6.3% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (16.9%)
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 1.4%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 26.9% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (22.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 14% of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 13.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to QQQ (19.9%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (15.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 9.8% of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (13.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 9.7% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 0.27, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (0.64) in the same period.
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of -0.08 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (1.22).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (0.92) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.39 of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with QQQ (1.8) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of -0.12 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 6.57 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (14 ) in the same period.
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 6.67 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (4.87 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -15.2 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days)
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -15.2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to QQQ (-22.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 412 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (493 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 412 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (113 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (125 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 115 days of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (31 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 150 days is higher, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.