Description

The NASDAQ 100 leaders is a sub-strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (93.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 121.3% of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (119%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 105% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (14.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 27.2%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 30.1% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (22.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 33.6% of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy is greater, thus worse.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 30.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (19.9%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside deviation of 23.5% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (15.7%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk is 20.7%, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 13.2% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy is 0.44, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (0.52) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 0.81 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (1.39).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (0.74) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.63 of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with QQQ (2.08) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.19 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy is 24 , which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (14 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (4.7 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 18 is greater, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy is -45.1 days, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -35.5 days, which is lower, thus worse than the value of -22.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 507 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (493 days)
  • Compared with QQQ (85 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 413 days is greater, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (121 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 191 days of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with QQQ (25 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 132 days is higher, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Leaders Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.