Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 142.7% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (99.7%)
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 44.1%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 91.1% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 19.5% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (14.9%)
  • Compared with QQQ (24.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 13% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 30.7%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (22.8%) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (20.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 33% is greater, thus worse.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 21% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (15.8%)
  • Compared with QQQ (13.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 23.2% is higher, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (0.54) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.55 of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is greater, thus better.
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.32 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (1.07).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.81 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (0.78)
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 0.45, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 1.57 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (14 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 13 of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (4.87 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 15 is larger, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -31.5 days of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (-22.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -31.5 days is lower, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (493 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 397 days of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 397 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 113 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (124 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 120 days of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at average days under water in of 129 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (30 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.