Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (94.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 116.7% of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 40.7%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 92.9% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (14.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 16.8% of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 12.1%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 24.7% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 31.4%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (23%) in the same period.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 34.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (20.4%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 21.3% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (15.9%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk is 23.7%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 13.9% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.46 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (0.51)
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.28, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 1.08 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 0.67, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (0.74) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (1.6) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.41 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 13 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (14 )
  • Compared with QQQ (4.85 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 16 is higher, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is -33.9 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -33.9 days, which is lower, thus worse than the value of -22.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (493 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 425 days of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 425 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 113 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (124 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 129 days of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus worse.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 144 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (30 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.