Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 443.8%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (135.3%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 87.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (91.1%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 40.5%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (18.7%) in the same period.
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 23.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (24.2%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 28.4%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (23.5%) in the same period.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 25.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (22.7%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside volatility over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 18.6%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (16.3%) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (15.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 17.1% is greater, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 1.33 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (0.69)
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.81 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (0.96).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 2.04, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (1) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (1.44) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.23 is smaller, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Downside risk index over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 8.94 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (14 ) in the same period.
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 9.29 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (7.9 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -25.8 days of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -25.8 days, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of -22.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum days under water over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 299 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (493 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (190 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 134 days is smaller, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 67 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (122 days)
  • Looking at average days under water in of 43 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to QQQ (47 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.