Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the total return of 839.1% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (161.1%)
  • Compared with QQQ (31.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 82.5% is larger, thus better.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (21.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.7% of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 22.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to QQQ (9.5%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 30%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (23.1%) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (22.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 24.9% is higher, thus worse.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 19.2%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (16.2%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside risk in of 16.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (16.2%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (0.81) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.81 of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 0.8 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to QQQ (0.31).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 2.83 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (1.16)
  • During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is 1.2, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.43 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 7.78 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (13 )
  • Compared with QQQ (13 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 7.47 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is -20.5 days, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -20.5 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to QQQ (-29.6 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 299 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (493 days)
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 134 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to QQQ (304 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average days below previous high of 62 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (121 days)
  • Looking at average days under water in of 38 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to QQQ (81 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.