Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the total return of 183.8% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (93.9%)
  • Compared with QQQ (107.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 77.4% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (14.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 23.3% of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (27.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 21.2% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 26.6% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (22.3%)
  • Compared with QQQ (19.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 27.5% is higher, thus worse.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 17.8%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (15.5%) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (13.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 18.9% is higher, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 0.78, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (0.52) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 0.68 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (1.29).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 1.16, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (0.75) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 0.99 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (1.92).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (14 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 12 of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 14 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (4.7 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is -31.5 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -31.5 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (-22.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum days under water over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 308 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (493 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 308 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 92 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (123 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 96 days of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 87 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 28 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.