This sub-strategy looks at two components and chooses the most appropriate one: A Treasury and a GLD-USD sub-strategy. The addition of gold provides an option for prolonged inflationary environments that could place bonds in a multi-year bear market.

This 2x leveraged version uses:

- UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury
- UGL ProShares Ultra Gold

The equity/bond pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, money typically flows towards treasuries and gold rewarding holders and providing crash protection.

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The total return over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 28.2%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (15.7%) in the same period.
- Compared with AGG (17.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 70.5% is larger, thus better.

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 5.1%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (3%) in the same period.
- Compared with AGG (5.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.5% is higher, thus better.

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The volatility over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 22.6%, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (4.6%) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the volatility is 25.4%, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 5.5% from the benchmark.

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the downside risk of 16.2% in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (3.5%)
- Looking at downside volatility in of 17.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to AGG (4.2%).

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark AGG (0.1) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.12 of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus better.
- Compared with AGG (0.54) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.67 is larger, thus better.

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.16 in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (0.13)
- Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 0.95 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.71).

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the Downside risk index of 17 in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (1.8 )
- Compared with AGG (1.48 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 15 is larger, thus worse.

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark AGG (-9.6 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -35.7 days of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is lower, thus worse.
- Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -35.7 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to AGG (-9.6 days).

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The maximum days under water over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 688 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (331 days) in the same period.
- Looking at maximum days under water in of 287 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to AGG (289 days).

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The average days under water over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 236 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (111 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 77 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 75 days from the benchmark.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.