Description

This sub-strategy looks at two components and chooses the most appropriate one: A Treasury and a GLD-USD sub-strategy. The addition of gold provides an option for prolonged inflationary environments that could place bonds in a multi-year bear market.

This 2x leveraged version uses:

  • UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury
  • UGL ProShares Ultra Gold

The equity/bond pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, money typically flows towards treasuries and gold rewarding holders and providing crash protection. 

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (-1.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 20.3% of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 13.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to AGG (14.3%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 3.8%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.4%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 4.2%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 4.6% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 13.4% in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (6.1%)
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 12.4%, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 5.1% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 9.4% of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus worse.
  • Compared with AGG (3.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 8.9% is higher, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.47) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.1 of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.14, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.41 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.66) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.14 of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with AGG (0.59) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.19 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark AGG (8.56 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 12 of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 12 , which is larger, thus worse than the value of 1.82 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is -22.9 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (-17.3 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -21.2 days, which is lower, thus worse than the value of -4.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 522 days in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (1067 days)
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 522 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (195 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 220 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (469 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with AGG (58 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 195 days is greater, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.