This sub-strategy looks at two components and chooses the most appropriate one: A Treasury and a GLD-USD sub-strategy. The addition of gold provides an option for prolonged inflationary environments that could place bonds in a multi-year bear market.

This 2x leveraged version uses:

- UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury
- UGL ProShares Ultra Gold

The equity/bond pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, money typically flows towards treasuries and gold rewarding holders and providing crash protection.

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark AGG (1.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 83.1% of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is higher, thus better.
- Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 42.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (-4.7%).

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 12.9% in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (0.4%)
- Compared with AGG (-1.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 12.5% is higher, thus better.

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 16.1%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (6.8%) in the same period.
- Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 14.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to AGG (7%).

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark AGG (5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 10.9% of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus worse.
- Compared with AGG (5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 9.8% is higher, thus worse.

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 0.65, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.31) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.69, which is larger, thus better than the value of -0.58 from the benchmark.

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 0.95, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.42) in the same period.
- Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 1.02 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (-0.83).

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the Ulcer Index of 9.08 in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (9.03 )
- Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 9.67 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to AGG (11 ).

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is -22.9 days, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (-18.4 days) in the same period.
- Compared with AGG (-17.7 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -22.9 days is smaller, thus worse.

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the maximum days under water of 500 days in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (1030 days)
- Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 500 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to AGG (750 days).

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The average days below previous high over 5 years of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage is 155 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (443 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 182 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 375 days from the benchmark.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Hedge Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
- Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.