Description of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version

This is the low volatility version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Methodology & Assets

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
DBEM – Emerging Markets Equity Fund
EPP – iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan
DBAP – MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Hedged Equity Fund
FEZ – SPDR Euro STOXX 50
HEDJ – Europe Hedged Equity Fund
IHDG – WisdomTree Int’l Hedged Quality Divident ETF
MDY – S&P MidCap 400

From the HEDGE sub-strategy:
GLD – SPDR Gold Shares
TLT– iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury (15-18yr)

From the Short Sectors sub-strategy:
SMN - ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials
ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF
SKF - ProShares UltraShort Financials
SIJ - ProShares UltraShort Industrial
REW - ProShares UltraShort Technolog
RXD - ProShares UltraShort Health Car
SCC - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Service
SDP - ProShares UltraShort Utilitie
SZK - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods

Statistics of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the total return of 54.5% in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (66.1%)
  • Compared with SPY (46.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 32.6% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 9.1%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (10.7%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (13.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 9.9% is smaller, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 11.3% of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 9.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (12.3%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside volatility over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 12.3%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (14.6%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside volatility in of 11% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (13.9%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 0.58, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.61) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.75, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.9 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.54 in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.56)
  • Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 0.67 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.8).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 3.82 in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (3.99 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 4.29 , which is higher, thus worse than the value of 4.04 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is -11.4 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -11.4 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 248 days of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is larger, thus worse.
  • Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 248 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (139 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average days below previous high of 56 days in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (41 days)
  • Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 69 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (36 days).

Performance of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version
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Allocations

Returns of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.