Description of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version

This is the low volatility version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Methodology & Assets

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
DBEM – Emerging Markets Equity Fund
EPP – iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan
DBAP – MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Hedged Equity Fund
FEZ – SPDR Euro STOXX 50
HEDJ – Europe Hedged Equity Fund
IHDG – WisdomTree Int’l Hedged Quality Divident ETF
MDY – S&P MidCap 400

From the HEDGE sub-strategy:
GLD – SPDR Gold Shares
TLT– iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury (15-18yr)

From the Short Sectors sub-strategy:
SMN - ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials
ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF
SKF - ProShares UltraShort Financials
SIJ - ProShares UltraShort Industrial
REW - ProShares UltraShort Technolog
RXD - ProShares UltraShort Health Car
SCC - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Service
SDP - ProShares UltraShort Utilitie
SZK - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods

Statistics of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The total return over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 63%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (74.4%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return is 42.1%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 47.2% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 10.3%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (13.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 12.4% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The volatility over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 11.2%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the same period.
  • Looking at volatility in of 9.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (12.9%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 12.3% in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.9%)
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 11% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (14.6%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.69 in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.68)
  • During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 1.01, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.88 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 0.63, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.62) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 0.91, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.77 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (3.99 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 3.88 of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 3.71 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (4.1 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -11.4 days in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -11 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 248 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 248 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (139 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average days under water over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 56 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (41 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (36 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 59 days is greater, thus worse.

Performance of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version
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Allocations

Returns of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.