Description of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version

This is the low volatility version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Methodology & Assets

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
DBEM – Emerging Markets Equity Fund
EPP – iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan
DBAP – MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Hedged Equity Fund
FEZ – SPDR Euro STOXX 50
HEDJ – Europe Hedged Equity Fund
IHDG – WisdomTree Int’l Hedged Quality Divident ETF
MDY – S&P MidCap 400

From the HEDGE sub-strategy:
GLD – SPDR Gold Shares
TLT– iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury (15-18yr)

From the Short Sectors sub-strategy:
SMN - ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials
ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF
SKF - ProShares UltraShort Financials
SIJ - ProShares UltraShort Industrial
REW - ProShares UltraShort Technolog
RXD - ProShares UltraShort Health Car
SCC - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Service
SDP - ProShares UltraShort Utilitie
SZK - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods

Statistics of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 63.6%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (68.2%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (47.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 36.1% is smaller, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 10.3%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (11%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (13.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 10.8% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 11.2% in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.2%)
  • Compared with SPY (12.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 10.5% is smaller, thus better.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 12.3% of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 12% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (14%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.7 in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.64)
  • Compared with SPY (0.92) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.79 is smaller, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.58) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.64 of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is greater, thus better.
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 0.7 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.81).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (3.95 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 3.81 of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is smaller, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 4.27 , which is higher, thus better than the value of 4 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -11.4 days in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -11.4 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -19.3 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version is 248 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 248 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (131 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 57 days in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (39 days)
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 69 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (33 days).

Performance of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version
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Allocations

Returns of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.