Description

This is the low volatility version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Methodology & Assets

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
DBEM – Emerging Markets Equity Fund
EPP – iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan
DBAP – MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Hedged Equity Fund
FEZ – SPDR Euro STOXX 50
HEDJ – Europe Hedged Equity Fund
IHDG – WisdomTree Int’l Hedged Quality Divident ETF
MDY – S&P MidCap 400

From the HEDGE sub-strategy:
GLD – SPDR Gold Shares
TLT– iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury (15-18yr)

From the Short Sectors sub-strategy:
SMN - ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials
ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF
SKF - ProShares UltraShort Financials
SIJ - ProShares UltraShort Industrial
REW - ProShares UltraShort Technolog
RXD - ProShares UltraShort Health Car
SCC - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Service
SDP - ProShares UltraShort Utilitie
SZK - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of 30.5% in the last 5 years of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (85.8%)
  • Compared with SPY (85%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 38.4% is smaller, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% in the last 5 years of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.2%)
  • Compared with SPY (22.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 11.5% is smaller, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the volatility of 12.2% in the last 5 years of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17.2%)
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 10.7%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 15.3% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 8.8%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (10.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 7.4% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.63) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.25 of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy is smaller, thus worse.
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 0.84 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.33).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.34 in the last 5 years of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.91)
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 1.22 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (2).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (8.45 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 6.58 of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (3.23 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 3.18 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy is -19.9 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (-18.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -10.2 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 539 days in the last 5 years of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
  • Compared with SPY (87 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 145 days is greater, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (118 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 146 days of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (17 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 37 days is larger, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of GSRS Low Volatility Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.