Description of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version

This is the aggressive version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Methodology & Assets

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
DBEM – Emerging Markets Equity Fund
EPP – iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan
DBAP – MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Hedged Equity Fund
FEZ – SPDR Euro STOXX 50
HEDJ – Europe Hedged Equity Fund
IHDG – WisdomTree Int’l Hedged Quality Divident ETF
MDY – S&P MidCap 400

From the HEDGE sub-strategy:
GLD – SPDR Gold Shares
TLT– iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury (15-18yr)

From the Short Sectors sub-strategy:

SMN - ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials
ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF
SKF - ProShares UltraShort Financials
SIJ - ProShares UltraShort Industrial
REW - ProShares UltraShort Technolog
RXD - ProShares UltraShort Health Car
SCC - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Service
SDP - ProShares UltraShort Utilitie
SZK - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods

Statistics of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return of 152.8% in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (68.2%)
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 146.4%, which is greater, thus better than the value of 47.7% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (11%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 20.4% of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 35.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (13.9%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the volatility of 20.4% in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.2%)
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 22.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (12.4%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 21.8% in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.6%)
  • Compared with SPY (14%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 24.1% is higher, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.64) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.88 of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version is greater, thus better.
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 1.46 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.92).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version is 0.82, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.58) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (0.81) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.35 is higher, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Index of 7.14 in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (3.95 )
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 5.7 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (4 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -21.1 days in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -18.8 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 259 days in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (187 days)
  • Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 259 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (131 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 72 days in the last 5 years of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (39 days)
  • Looking at average days under water in of 61 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (33 days).

Performance of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version
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Allocations

Returns of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.