Description

This is the aggressive version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Methodology & Assets

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
DBEM – Emerging Markets Equity Fund
EPP – iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan
DBAP – MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Hedged Equity Fund
FEZ – SPDR Euro STOXX 50
HEDJ – Europe Hedged Equity Fund
IHDG – WisdomTree Int’l Hedged Quality Divident ETF
MDY – S&P MidCap 400

From the HEDGE sub-strategy:
GLD – SPDR Gold Shares
TLT– iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury (15-18yr)

From the Short Sectors sub-strategy:

SMN - ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials
ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF
SKF - ProShares UltraShort Financials
SIJ - ProShares UltraShort Industrial
REW - ProShares UltraShort Technolog
RXD - ProShares UltraShort Health Car
SCC - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Service
SDP - ProShares UltraShort Utilitie
SZK - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (75.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 80.8% of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at total return in of 39.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (40%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 12.6% of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 11.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (11.9%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is 20.6%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (20.3%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 24.3%, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 23.6% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside deviation of 15.3% in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.9%)
  • Compared with SPY (17.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 18.2% is higher, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.49 in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.46)
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.38 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.4).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.66 in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.63)
  • Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 0.5 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.54).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (6.62 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 11 of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is higher, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (7.55 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 14 is greater, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is -44.6 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -44.6 days is smaller, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 237 days in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (139 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 237 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 120 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 54 days in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (37 days)
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 69 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (31 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.