Description

This is the aggressive version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Methodology & Assets

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
DBEM – Emerging Markets Equity Fund
EPP – iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan
DBAP – MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Hedged Equity Fund
FEZ – SPDR Euro STOXX 50
HEDJ – Europe Hedged Equity Fund
IHDG – WisdomTree Int’l Hedged Quality Divident ETF
MDY – S&P MidCap 400

From the HEDGE sub-strategy:
GLD – SPDR Gold Shares
TLT– iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury (15-18yr)

From the Short Sectors sub-strategy:

SMN - ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials
ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF
SKF - ProShares UltraShort Financials
SIJ - ProShares UltraShort Industrial
REW - ProShares UltraShort Technolog
RXD - ProShares UltraShort Health Car
SCC - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Service
SDP - ProShares UltraShort Utilitie
SZK - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (86.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 31.3% of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 40.7%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 78.3% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.3%)
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 12.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (21.4%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 18.1% in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17.1%)
  • Looking at volatility in of 19.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (15.2%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 13% of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is higher, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (10.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 13.7% is greater, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.17 in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.63)
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.5, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 1.24 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.24 in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.91)
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 0.7 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.85).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (8.45 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 11 of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (3.51 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 6.03 is higher, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is -25.3 days, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (-18.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -18.1 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 749 days of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is higher, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 157 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 87 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (120 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 250 days of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is greater, thus worse.
  • Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 49 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (20 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.