This is the aggressive version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets

DBEM – Emerging Markets Equity Fund

EPP – iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan

DBAP – MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Hedged Equity Fund

FEZ – SPDR Euro STOXX 50

HEDJ – Europe Hedged Equity Fund

IHDG – WisdomTree Int’l Hedged Quality Divident ETF

MDY – S&P MidCap 400

From the HEDGE sub-strategy:

GLD – SPDR Gold Shares

TLT– iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury (15-18yr)

From the Short Sectors sub-strategy:

SMN - ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials

ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF

SKF - ProShares UltraShort Financials

SIJ - ProShares UltraShort Industrial

REW - ProShares UltraShort Technolog

RXD - ProShares UltraShort Health Car

SCC - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Service

SDP - ProShares UltraShort Utilitie

SZK - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (110.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 209.1% of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is greater, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (39.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 4.7% is smaller, thus worse.

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.4% in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (16.1%)
- Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 1.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (11.8%).

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (20.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 23.1% of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is larger, thus worse.
- Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 15.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (17.5%).

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the downside risk of 16.1% in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.9%)
- During the last 3 years, the downside risk is 11.5%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 12.2% from the benchmark.

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.65) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.99 of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is greater, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is -0.06, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.53 from the benchmark.

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.42 in the last 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.91)
- Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of -0.08 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.76).

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (9.32 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 11 of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is higher, thus worse.
- Looking at Downside risk index in of 13 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (10 ).

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is -38.7 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -25.3 days, which is lower, thus worse than the value of -24.5 days from the benchmark.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is 618 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 618 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 488 days from the benchmark.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The average days below previous high over 5 years of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy is 182 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (124 days) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (179 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 267 days is higher, thus worse.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of GSRS Aggressive Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
- Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.