This is the unhedged version of our Global Market Rotation Strategy, together with the Hedge strategy it blends the hedged Global Market Rotation Strategy

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark ACWI (71.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 170.8% of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus better.
- Looking at total return in of 50.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to ACWI (19.7%).

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 22.1% in the last 5 years of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (11.4%)
- Compared with ACWI (6.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 14.6% is higher, thus better.

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark ACWI (19.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 21% of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy is higher, thus worse.
- Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 16.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to ACWI (16.3%).

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark ACWI (14.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 14.8% of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus worse.
- Looking at downside deviation in of 11.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to ACWI (11.3%).

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.93 in the last 5 years of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (0.45)
- Compared with ACWI (0.23) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.75 is greater, thus better.

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark ACWI (0.61) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.32 of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is 1.08, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.32 from the benchmark.

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy is 7.15 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (9.93 ) in the same period.
- Looking at Ulcer Index in of 7.68 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to ACWI (11 ).

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy is -28.6 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (-33.5 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -23 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -26.4 days from the benchmark.

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The maximum days under water over 5 years of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy is 286 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (516 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 286 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 516 days from the benchmark.

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark ACWI (133 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 55 days of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy is smaller, thus better.
- Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 73 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to ACWI (195 days).

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of GMRS Unhedged Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
- Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.