Description of Dow 30 Strategy

We developed the Dow 30 Top 4 Strategy some years ago together with the Nasdaq 100 strategy. We waited to published it because the Nasdaq 100 Top 4 Strategy was outperforming the Dow Strategy in the technology driven bull market we've had in recent years. Going forward however, the Dow 30 Top 4 Strategy could be very beneficial, as stock picking becomes much more important in volatile, sideways moving markets.

The performance of the Dow 30 strategy is quite similar to the simpler US Market Strategy, however in volatile markets like this year, the stock picking Dow 30 outperformed. Notably, the February drawdown was only half of the US Market Strategy as the Dow Strategy excludes high volatility stocks.

Statistics of Dow 30 Strategy (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return of 92.3% in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (78.7%)
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 37.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to DIA (57%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (12.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 14% of Dow 30 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (16.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 11.2% is smaller, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (13.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 8.6% of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 8.5%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 12.7% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (14.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 9.6% of Dow 30 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at downside volatility in of 9.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to DIA (14.2%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is 1.34, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (0.73) in the same period.
  • Compared with DIA (1.09) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.02 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (0.66) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.2 of Dow 30 Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 0.92 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to DIA (0.97).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (4.24 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 2.57 of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (4.17 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 2.6 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is -9.7 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (-18.1 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -9.3 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to DIA (-18.1 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 133 days in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (227 days)
  • Compared with DIA (161 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 106 days is smaller, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average days under water over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is 29 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (53 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 30 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to DIA (43 days).

Performance of Dow 30 Strategy (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of Dow 30 Strategy
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Allocations

Returns of Dow 30 Strategy (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Dow 30 Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.