Description of Dow 30 Strategy

We developed the Dow 30 Top 4 Strategy some years ago together with the Nasdaq 100 strategy. We waited to published it because the Nasdaq 100 Top 4 Strategy was outperforming the Dow Strategy in the technology driven bull market we've had in recent years. Going forward however, the Dow 30 Top 4 Strategy could be very beneficial, as stock picking becomes much more important in volatile, sideways moving markets.

The performance of the Dow 30 strategy is quite similar to the simpler US Market Strategy, however in volatile markets like this year, the stock picking Dow 30 outperformed. Notably, the February drawdown was only half of the US Market Strategy as the Dow Strategy excludes high volatility stocks.

Statistics of Dow 30 Strategy (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The total return, or performance over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is 107.4%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (77.3%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return, or performance in of 49.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to DIA (58.2%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is 15.7%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (12.1%) in the same period.
  • Compared with DIA (16.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% is smaller, thus worse.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (13.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 8.6% of Dow 30 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 8.4%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 12.8% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is 9.5%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (14.8%) in the same period.
  • Compared with DIA (14.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 9.4% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.54 in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (0.72)
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 1.43 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to DIA (1.1).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (0.65) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.39 of Dow 30 Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (0.97) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.27 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (4.22 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 2.12 of Dow 30 Strategy is smaller, thus worse.
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 1.79 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to DIA (4.14 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -9.7 days in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (-18.1 days)
  • Compared with DIA (-18.1 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -8.4 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is 133 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (227 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 103 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 161 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (53 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 26 days of Dow 30 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (43 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 26 days is lower, thus better.

Performance of Dow 30 Strategy (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of Dow 30 Strategy
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Allocations

Returns of Dow 30 Strategy (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Dow 30 Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.