Description

The Dow 30 strategy is a good way to invest in the best of the Dow 30 blue chips while avoiding the old fashioned underperforming members of the Dow 30 index.

The strategy uses a risk-adjusted momentum algorithm to choose the top four Dow 30 stocks with a variable allocation to treasuries or gold to smooth the equity curve and provide crash protection in bear markets. The strategy combines well with our more conservative strategies, such as the Bond Rotation Strategy or BUG, or with one of our non-U.S. equity strategies such as World Top 4, to form a well balanced portfolio.

The performance of the Dow 30 strategy is quite similar to the simpler US Market Strategy, however in volatile markets, the stock picking Dow 30 can outperformed the Dow 30 index.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the total return of 70.9% in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark DIA (75.9%)
  • Compared with DIA (52.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 44.9% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (12%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 11.4% of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 13.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to DIA (15.3%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (14.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 7.5% of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (13.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 7.8% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 5.2% in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (10.1%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 5.4%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 8.9% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (0.65) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.18 of Dow 30 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 1.37 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to DIA (0.96).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is 1.71, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (0.95) in the same period.
  • Compared with DIA (1.43) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.98 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 2.88 in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (5.93 )
  • Compared with DIA (3.43 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 2.39 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (-20.8 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -7.7 days of Dow 30 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -6.1 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to DIA (-16 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (477 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 424 days of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 208 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to DIA (142 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the average days below previous high of 94 days in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (116 days)
  • Looking at average days under water in of 49 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to DIA (28 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Dow 30 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.