Description

The Conservative Strategy of strategies invests only in unleveraged strategies. It also does not invest in single stock strategies as they have a higher risk than index strategies. The strategy selects the top 3 strategies of the following 5 strategies:
- Bond Rotation Strategy
- Global Market Rotation Strategy
- US Market Strategy
- World Country Top 4 Strategy
- Hedge Strategy

During volatile market periods, the strategy will invest with 1/3 also in the Hedge Strategy in addition to the other strategies which are already hedged. The total hedge can this way go up to 74% which makes this strategy very safe. 

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Conservative Strategy is 64.2%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (120.1%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 26%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 65.1% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 10.5% of Conservative Strategy is smaller, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 8.1%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 18.3% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 5.9% of Conservative Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (17.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 5% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 4% in the last 5 years of Conservative Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (12.1%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 3.3%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 11.6% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of Conservative Strategy is 1.36, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.83) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 1.12 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.9).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 2.01 in the last 5 years of Conservative Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (1.21)
  • During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is 1.66, which is greater, thus better than the value of 1.36 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (8.48 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 1.89 of Conservative Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 1.37 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (5.31 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -5.8 days of Conservative Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -4.3 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -18.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 318 days of Conservative Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 102 days, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 199 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The average days under water over 5 years of Conservative Strategy is 64 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (120 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (47 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 30 days is lower, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Conservative Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.