Description

The Conservative Strategy of strategies invests only in unleveraged strategies. It also does not invest in single stock strategies as they have a higher risk than index strategies. The strategy selects the top 3 strategies of the following 5 strategies:
- Bond Rotation Strategy
- Global Market Rotation Strategy
- US Market Strategy
- World Country Top 4 Strategy
- Hedge Strategy

During volatile market periods, the strategy will invest with 1/3 also in the Hedge Strategy in addition to the other strategies which are already hedged. The total hedge can this way go up to 74% which makes this strategy very safe. 

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (133.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 37.9% of Conservative Strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 19% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (80.4%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of Conservative Strategy is 6.7%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (18.5%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 6%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 21.8% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 6.9% in the last 5 years of Conservative Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (18.7%)
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 8.3%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 22.4% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 5.2% of Conservative Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 6.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (16.2%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of Conservative Strategy is 0.6, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.85) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (0.86) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.42 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.8 in the last 5 years of Conservative Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (1.18)
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 0.55 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.19).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (5.59 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 2.62 of Conservative Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 3.26 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (6.36 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -16.6 days of Conservative Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -16.6 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (-33.7 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 417 days in the last 5 years of Conservative Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (139 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 417 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 119 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (32 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 99 days of Conservative Strategy is higher, thus worse.
  • Looking at average days under water in of 137 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (25 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Conservative Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.