Description

This very aggressive strategy invests in the top performers across a selection of crypto, equity, treasury and precious metal assets with similar volatility characteristics. These asset classes are represented by Bitcoin, Ethereum, SPXL, TMF and AGQ. Twice each month, the strategy ranks these assets using our Modified Sharpe Ratio and invests 50% of the portfolio in each of the top two performers.

Due to the nature of crypto currency and leveraged ETFs, investors should be prepared for large swings up and down.

Here are some of the possible market scenarios this strategy is designed take advantage of:

  • Ethereum is performing well but Bitcoin is under-performing. The strategy can invest 50% in Ethereum and 50% in SPXL.
  • A prolonged crypto bear market. The strategy can shift to 50% in SPXL and 50% in TMF.
  • Cryptos are outperforming other asset classes. The strategy could invest fully in crypto assets by allocating 50% to Bitcoin and 50% to Ethereum.

Twice Monthly Rebalancing

The strategy rebalances on the 1st and 16th of each month which provides a balance between a very active daily or weekly rebalancing, that can cause whipsaws, and a monthly rebalancing that may be too slow considering how fast the crypto markets move. The twice-monthly frequency is simple to execute, avoids whipsaws but can still react to shifting market trends.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 83.5%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (59.7%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return is 160.4%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 118% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (9.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 13% of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (29.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 37.8% is greater, thus better.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (53.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 48.6% of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 49.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (47.6%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 35.3% in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (36%)
  • Looking at downside volatility in of 37.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (30.7%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 0.22, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (0.14) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.71, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.57 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.3 in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (0.2)
  • Compared with BTC-USD (0.89) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.95 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 36 in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (41 )
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 24 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (22 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -64.7 days in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (-76.6 days)
  • Compared with BTC-USD (-53.1 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -58.2 days is lower, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 773 days in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (580 days)
  • Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 181 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to BTC-USD (203 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 265 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (172 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average days under water in of 55 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to BTC-USD (59 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.