Description

This very aggressive strategy invests in the top performers across a selection of crypto, equity, treasury and precious metal assets with similar volatility characteristics. These asset classes are represented by Bitcoin, Ethereum, SPXL, TMF and AGQ. Twice each month, the strategy ranks these assets using our Modified Sharpe Ratio and invests 50% of the portfolio in each of the top two performers.

Due to the nature of crypto currency and leveraged ETFs, investors should be prepared for large swings up and down.

Here are some of the possible market scenarios this strategy is designed take advantage of:

  • Ethereum is performing well but Bitcoin is under-performing. The strategy can invest 50% in Ethereum and 50% in SPXL.
  • A prolonged crypto bear market. The strategy can shift to 50% in SPXL and 50% in TMF.
  • Cryptos are outperforming other asset classes. The strategy could invest fully in crypto assets by allocating 50% to Bitcoin and 50% to Ethereum.

Twice Monthly Rebalancing

The strategy rebalances on the 1st and 16th of each month which provides a balance between a very active daily or weekly rebalancing, that can cause whipsaws, and a monthly rebalancing that may be too slow considering how fast the crypto markets move. The twice-monthly frequency is simple to execute, avoids whipsaws but can still react to shifting market trends.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of 99.2% in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (40.9%)
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 188.9%, which is greater, thus better than the value of 174% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (7.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 14.8% of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (40.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.8% is greater, thus better.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (55.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 49.7% of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (47.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 50.1% is greater, thus worse.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 36.2% in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (38.5%)
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 37.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (30.6%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (0.08) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.25 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.8, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.79 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (0.12) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.34 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is 1.08, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 1.23 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Index of 34 in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (41 )
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 19 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (18 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -64.7 days in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (-76.6 days)
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -57.6 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (-49.7 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum days under water over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 773 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (580 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 181 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (164 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The average days under water over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 263 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (167 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 49 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (47 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.