Description

The World Country Africa strategy is a sub-strategy that picks the top country of the specified region. It is part of the World Top 4 investment strategy.

Methodology & Assets

AFK Market Vectors Africa Index
EGPT Market Vectors Egypt Index
EIS iShares MSCI Israel
EZA iShares MSCI South Africa Index
FM iShares MSCI Frontier Markets ETF
FRN Guggenheim BNY Mellon Frontier Mkts
GULF WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Index
GREK Global X FTSE Greece 20
RSX Market Vectors DAXglobal Russia
TUR iShares MSCI Turkey

From the HEDGE strategy:
GLD – SPDR Gold Shares
TLT– iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasuries (15-18yr)

Short Sectors:

SMN - ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials
ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF
SKF - ProShares UltraShort Financials
SIJ - ProShares UltraShort Industrial
REW - ProShares UltraShort Technology
RXD - ProShares UltraShort Health Car
SCC - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Service
SDP - ProShares UltraShort Utilities
SZK - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or performance over 5 years of World Countries Africa is 91.4%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (93.2%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 64.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (80.1%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of World Countries Africa is 13.9%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (14.1%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 18.1%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 21.8% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 16.7% in the last 5 years of World Countries Africa, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17%)
  • Looking at volatility in of 18% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (15.1%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 11.8% of World Countries Africa is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (10.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 12.7% is larger, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of World Countries Africa is 0.68, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.68) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (1.28) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.87 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of World Countries Africa is 0.97, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.99) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 1.23 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.91).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 15 in the last 5 years of World Countries Africa, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (8.42 )
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 5.21 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (3.4 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -31.7 days of World Countries Africa is smaller, thus worse.
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -16.9 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (-18.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 726 days in the last 5 years of World Countries Africa, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
  • Compared with SPY (87 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 169 days is higher, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average days under water of 243 days in the last 5 years of World Countries Africa, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (119 days)
  • Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 56 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (19 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of World Countries Africa are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.