Description of World Countries Africa

The World Country Africa strategy is a sub-strategy that picks the top country of the specified region. It is part of the World Top 4 investment strategy.

Methodology & Assets

AFK Market Vectors Africa Index
EGPT Market Vectors Egypt Index
EIS iShares MSCI Israel
EZA iShares MSCI South Africa Index
FM iShares MSCI Frontier Markets ETF
FRN Guggenheim BNY Mellon Frontier Mkts
GULF WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Index
GREK Global X FTSE Greece 20
RSX Market Vectors DAXglobal Russia
TUR iShares MSCI Turkey

From the HEDGE strategy:
GLD – SPDR Gold Shares
TLT– iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasuries (15-18yr)

Short Sectors:

SMN - ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials
ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X ETF
SKF - ProShares UltraShort Financials
SIJ - ProShares UltraShort Industrial
REW - ProShares UltraShort Technology
RXD - ProShares UltraShort Health Car
SCC - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Service
SDP - ProShares UltraShort Utilities
SZK - ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods

Statistics of World Countries Africa (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the total return of 41.6% in the last 5 years of World Countries Africa, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (66.1%)
  • Looking at total return in of 84.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (46.2%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of World Countries Africa is 7.2%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (10.7%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 22.7%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 13.5% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of World Countries Africa is 14.3%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (13.4%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (12.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 13.3% is greater, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 15.5% of World Countries Africa is greater, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 14.6%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 13.9% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 0.33 in the last 5 years of World Countries Africa, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.61)
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 1.52 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.9).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.3 in the last 5 years of World Countries Africa, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.56)
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 1.38 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.8).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Index of 16 in the last 5 years of World Countries Africa, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (3.99 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 4.11 , which is greater, thus worse than the value of 4.04 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of World Countries Africa is -34.6 days, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -12.7 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 786 days of World Countries Africa is higher, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 153 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 139 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 274 days in the last 5 years of World Countries Africa, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (41 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 35 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 36 days from the benchmark.

Performance of World Countries Africa (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of World Countries Africa
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Allocations

Returns of World Countries Africa (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of World Countries Africa are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.