US Sector Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• Looking at the total return, or performance of 43.6% in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (84.2%)
• Compared with SPY (70.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 17.1% is smaller, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 7.5% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (19.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 5.4% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 11.3% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the volatility is 8.9%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 15.3% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 8.2% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 6.4%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 10.3% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

• The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 0.44, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.62) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.33, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 1.12 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.89) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.61 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus worse.
• Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 0.46 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.66).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 6.63 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (8.46 ) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (3.53 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 4.53 is higher, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -16.4 days in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days)
• Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -11.7 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (-18.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Looking at the maximum days under water of 507 days in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
• Compared with SPY (87 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 270 days is larger, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• The average days under water over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 149 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the same period.
• Looking at average days under water in of 73 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (21 days).