Description

The Short Term Bond Strategy is essentially a place to park cash that earns interest. When combined with other higher risk strategies it creates a lower risk portfolio and generally improves the portfolio's Sharpe ratio. If your broker pays interest on cash balances that is comparable to the current yield of this strategy, you can choose to keep this allocation in cash instead.

Methodology & Assets

This strategy switches between very low risk ETFs that hold short term corporate or treasury bonds including GSY, MINT and NEAR.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 23% in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (9%)
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 16.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SHY (12.5%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (1.7%)
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 5.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SHY (4%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 1% of Short Term Bond Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at volatility in of 0.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SHY (1.6%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 0.6% in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (1.3%)
  • Compared with SHY (1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 0.2% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.82 in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (-0.38)
  • Compared with SHY (0.94) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 5.36 is larger, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 2.98 in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (-0.58)
  • Compared with SHY (1.53) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 13 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (2.26 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 0.35 of Short Term Bond Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with SHY (0.3 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 0.02 is smaller, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -2 days in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (-5.7 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -0.2 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -1 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (669 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 265 days of Short Term Bond Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with SHY (93 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 10 days is smaller, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the average days under water of 64 days in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (208 days)
  • Compared with SHY (21 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 2 days is smaller, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Short Term Bond Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.