Description

The Short Term Bond Strategy is essentially a place to park cash that earns interest. When combined with other higher risk strategies it creates a lower risk portfolio and generally improves the portfolio's Sharpe ratio. If your broker pays interest on cash balances that is comparable to the current yield of this strategy, you can choose to keep this allocation in cash instead.

Methodology & Assets

This strategy switches between very low risk ETFs that hold short term corporate or treasury bonds including GSY, MINT and NEAR.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 23.5%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (8.8%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return is 16.4%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 12.2% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (1.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 4.3% of Short Term Bond Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 5.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SHY (3.9%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 1% of Short Term Bond Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with SHY (1.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 0.5% is smaller, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 0.6% in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (1.3%)
  • Compared with SHY (1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 0.2% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.91 in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (-0.39)
  • Compared with SHY (0.87) in the period of the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 5.22 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 3.15, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (-0.59) in the same period.
  • Compared with SHY (1.41) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 13 is larger, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 0.35 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (2.22 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with SHY (0.31 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 0.02 is smaller, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is -2 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (-5.6 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SHY (-1 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -0.2 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (657 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 265 days of Short Term Bond Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 11 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SHY (93 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (201 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 65 days of Short Term Bond Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SHY (21 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Short Term Bond Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.