Description

The Global Market Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. The strategy invests on a monthly basis in one of five broad global markets. It hedges the global equity exposure with variable allocation to the HEDGE sub-strategy.

Version History

December 2016 Update: We are enhancing the Treasury hedge. Before we allocated part of the portfolio to longer-term treasuries, namely the 3x leveraged ETF version, TMF. From now on we will be allocating to the best bond ETF as chosen by our Bond Rotation strategy (BRS). BRS choses from the JNK, CWB,PCY and TLT ETFs.

December 2015 Update: We are adding currency hedged ETFs in the universe that our algorithm can see. That means that we allow our algorithms to choose between a non-hedged ETF like EWG or a hedged ETF like HEWG. This allows our algorithm to input dollar strength as an additional parameter and be able to respond accordingly. This does not change the current logic, which is to bet on the best performing regions or countries. What it does is that it allows, in the case of extended dollar strength, to partially neutralize foreign currency risk for our U.S. based investors.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is 67.3%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (63.1%) in the same period.
  • Compared with ACWI (70.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 50.6% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 10.9% in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (10.3%)
  • During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 14.7%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 19.5% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 8.9% in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (16%)
  • Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 9.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to ACWI (14.2%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 6.3% in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (11%)
  • Compared with ACWI (9.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 6.6% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 0.94 in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (0.49)
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 1.29, which is greater, thus better than the value of 1.19 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is 1.34, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (0.71) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 1.84, which is higher, thus better than the value of 1.77 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 3.06 in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (8.9 )
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 1.99 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to ACWI (3.21 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -10.4 days in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (-26.4 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -7.6 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -16.5 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum days under water over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is 281 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (516 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with ACWI (94 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 86 days is lower, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average days under water of 54 days in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (127 days)
  • Compared with ACWI (17 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 20 days is larger, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Global Market Rotation Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.