Description

The Dow 30 strategy is a good way to invest in the best of the Dow 30 blue chips while avoiding the old fashioned underperforming members of the Dow 30 index.

The strategy uses a risk-adjusted momentum algorithm to choose the top four Dow 30 stocks with a variable allocation to treasuries or gold to smooth the equity curve and provide crash protection in bear markets. The strategy combines well with our more conservative strategies, such as the Bond Rotation Strategy or BUG, or with one of our non-U.S. equity strategies such as World Top 4, to form a well balanced portfolio.

The performance of the Dow 30 strategy is quite similar to the simpler US Market Strategy, however in volatile markets, the stock picking Dow 30 can outperformed the Dow 30 index.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is 83.3%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (81.6%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return is 22%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 37.9% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.9% in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (12.7%)
  • Compared with DIA (11.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 6.9% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 8.4% in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (20.1%)
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 6.9%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 14.4% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (14.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 5.8% of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at downside volatility in of 4.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to DIA (10%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 1.24 in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (0.51)
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.64, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.61 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.79 in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (0.71)
  • Compared with DIA (0.89) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.91 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Index of 2.91 in the last 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark DIA (6.29 )
  • Compared with DIA (5.12 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 3.5 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (-27.9 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -9.6 days of Dow 30 Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -7.7 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to DIA (-17.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (477 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 424 days of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 424 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 323 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (111 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 91 days of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 136 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 89 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Dow 30 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.