Description

The Dow 30 strategy is a good way to invest in the best of the Dow 30 blue chips while avoiding the old fashioned underperforming members of the Dow 30 index.

The strategy uses a risk-adjusted momentum algorithm to choose the top four Dow 30 stocks with a variable allocation to treasuries or gold to smooth the equity curve and provide crash protection in bear markets. The strategy combines well with our more conservative strategies, such as the Bond Rotation Strategy or BUG, or with one of our non-U.S. equity strategies such as World Top 4, to form a well balanced portfolio.

The performance of the Dow 30 strategy is quite similar to the simpler US Market Strategy, however in volatile markets, the stock picking Dow 30 can outperformed the Dow 30 index.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (72.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 63.7% of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Looking at total return in of 34.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to DIA (48.9%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (11.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 10.4% of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 10.6%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 14.3% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (14.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 7.4% of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (13.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 7.5% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (10.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 5.1% of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 5.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to DIA (9.1%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (0.62) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.07 of Dow 30 Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 1.07 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to DIA (0.87).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (0.9) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.56 of Dow 30 Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is 1.54, which is greater, thus better than the value of 1.3 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (5.93 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 2.88 of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 3.04 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to DIA (3.46 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is -7.7 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (-20.8 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -7.4 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to DIA (-16 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (477 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 424 days of Dow 30 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 236 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to DIA (142 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (116 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 93 days of Dow 30 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (33 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 57 days is greater, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Dow 30 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.