Description

The Dow 30 strategy is a good way to invest in the best of the Dow 30 blue chips while avoiding the old fashioned underperforming members of the Dow 30 index.

The strategy uses a risk-adjusted momentum algorithm to choose the top four Dow 30 stocks with a variable allocation to treasuries or gold to smooth the equity curve and provide crash protection in bear markets. The strategy combines well with our more conservative strategies, such as the Bond Rotation Strategy or BUG, or with one of our non-U.S. equity strategies such as World Top 4, to form a well balanced portfolio.

The performance of the Dow 30 strategy is quite similar to the simpler US Market Strategy, however in volatile markets, the stock picking Dow 30 can outperformed the Dow 30 index.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is 82.4%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (71.6%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 21.6%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 28.9% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (11.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 12.8% of Dow 30 Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (8.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 6.7% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (20.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 8.6% of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at volatility in of 6.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to DIA (14.9%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (14.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 6% of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (10.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 4.8% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (0.43) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.2 of Dow 30 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.62, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.43 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Dow 30 Strategy is 1.73, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark DIA (0.6) in the same period.
  • Compared with DIA (0.62) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.89 is larger, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (7.68 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 2.96 of Dow 30 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (7.09 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 3.49 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (-36.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -10.9 days of Dow 30 Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (-20.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -7.7 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (477 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 424 days of Dow 30 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 424 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 477 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark DIA (122 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 91 days of Dow 30 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with DIA (170 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 136 days is smaller, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Dow 30 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.