Description

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a beauty retailer in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and others, including nail products and accessories. It also provides private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of May 2, 2020, the company operated 1,264 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its Website, ulta.com. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Statistics (YTD)

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TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return over 5 years of Ulta Beauty is 124.5%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (87.2%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (71%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 30.2% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 17.6% of Ulta Beauty is greater, thus better.
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 9.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (19.7%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The volatility over 5 years of Ulta Beauty is 33.9%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (17%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (15.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 33.8% is higher, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 22.8% in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (11.7%)
  • Looking at downside risk in of 22.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (10.2%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.45 in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.64)
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 0.2 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.13).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.66 in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.93)
  • Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 0.3 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.68).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Downside risk index over 5 years of Ulta Beauty is 18 , which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (8.42 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (3.49 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 23 is larger, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -44.6 days of Ulta Beauty is lower, thus worse.
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -44.6 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (-18.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 434 days in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 434 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (87 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Ulta Beauty is 109 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (20 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 159 days is larger, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Ulta Beauty are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.