Description

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a beauty retailer in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and others, including nail products and accessories. It also provides private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of May 2, 2020, the company operated 1,264 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its Website, ulta.com. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Statistics (YTD)

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TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of 54.9% in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (118.6%)
  • Compared with SPY (38.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of -7% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of Ulta Beauty is 9.2%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (17%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (11.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.4% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 41.1% in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (20.1%)
  • Compared with SPY (17.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 32.7% is larger, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 28% in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.2%)
  • Looking at downside risk in of 23.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (12%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Ulta Beauty is 0.16, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.72) in the same period.
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of -0.15 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.53).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.24 in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (1.02)
  • Compared with SPY (0.75) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of -0.21 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 18 in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (8.35 )
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 21 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (8.6 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -43.5 days in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -43.5 days, which is lower, thus worse than the value of -22.1 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 248 days in the last 5 years of Ulta Beauty, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
  • Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 248 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (325 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Ulta Beauty is 62 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (118 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 83 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (90 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Ulta Beauty are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.