Moderna (MRNA)

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• The total return over 5 years of Moderna is 98.6%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (98.1%) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the total return is -85.7%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 35.3% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Moderna is 14.7%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (14.7%) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is -47.8%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 10.6% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Looking at the volatility of 74.6% in the last 5 years of Moderna, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (21%)
• Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 60.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (17.5%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Looking at the downside volatility of 47.8% in the last 5 years of Moderna, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15%)
• During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 42.3%, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 12.2% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.16 in the last 5 years of Moderna, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.58)
• During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is -0.83, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 0.46 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.81) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.26 of Moderna is lower, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (0.66) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of -1.19 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (9.32 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 59 of Moderna is greater, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 57 , which is higher, thus worse than the value of 10 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of Moderna is -92.4 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -86.7 days, which is lower, thus worse than the value of -24.5 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 848 days in the last 5 years of Moderna, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
• Compared with SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 755 days is greater, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (122 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 306 days of Moderna is higher, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 378 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 178 days from the benchmark.