Moderna (MRNA)

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (97.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 63.7% of Moderna is lower, thus worse.
• Looking at total return, or increase in value in of -79% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (40.1%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Moderna is 10.4%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (14.6%) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (12%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of -40.8% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• The volatility over 5 years of Moderna is 75.6%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (21%) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (17.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 61.6% is larger, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Looking at the downside volatility of 48.8% in the last 5 years of Moderna, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15%)
• Compared with SPY (12.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 43% is larger, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

• Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.1 in the last 5 years of Moderna, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.58)
• Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of -0.7 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.55).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Moderna is 0.16, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.8) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (0.78) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of -1.01 is smaller, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• Looking at the Ulcer Index of 61 in the last 5 years of Moderna, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (9.33 )
• Looking at Downside risk index in of 46 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (8.64 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of Moderna is -93 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -83.9 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (-22.1 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 876 days in the last 5 years of Moderna, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
• Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 530 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (325 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (122 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 325 days of Moderna is higher, thus worse.
• Looking at average days under water in of 201 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (89 days).