Description

DELISTED - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (GMCR) is a specialty coffee and coffee maker. It sells Keurig Single Cup Brewers and Arabica bean coffees, including Fair Trade Certified, certified organic, flavored, limited edition and blends offered in K-Cup and Vue packs (single serve packs) for use with its Keurig Single Cup Brewers. The Company's brewing technology, Keurig Single Cup Brewing System combined with an array of beverage brands, offers a variety of options to consumer from the kitchen countertop, to small offices and dorm rooms, to hotels. It also offers traditional whole bean and ground coffee in other package types including bags, fractional packages and cans. In addition, it produces and sells other specialty beverages in single serve packs including hot and iced teas, iced coffees, hot and iced fruit brews, hot cocoa and other dairy-based beverages. It sources, produces, and sells more than 30 brands and 250 varieties of coffee, cocoa, teas, and other specialty beverages.

Statistics (YTD)

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TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return of 127.2% in the last 5 years of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (125.9%)
  • Looking at total return, or performance in of 87.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (44.4%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 17.9% in the last 5 years of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17.7%)
  • During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 23.3%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 13% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (18.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 73.6% of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is higher, thus worse.
  • Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 63.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (22.8%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is 44.7%, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk is 31.3%, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 16.7% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.81) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.21 of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 0.33, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.46 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (1.12) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.34 of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (0.63) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.66 is higher, thus better.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is 45 , which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (5.59 ) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 31 , which is higher, thus worse than the value of 7.14 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -84.3 days in the last 5 years of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -74.5 days, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of -33.7 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is 601 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (139 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 322 days is higher, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (33 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 199 days of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is higher, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (45 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 91 days is higher, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.