Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates through two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $1.00. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Valentine's Day, Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. This segment operates 7,505 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 13 distribution centers in the United States and 2 in Canada; and a store support center in Chesapeake, Virginia. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise discount retail stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and beauty aids, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. Its stores also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Valentine's Day, Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. This segment operates 7,783 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Statistics (YTD)

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TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of -3.6% in the last 5 years of Dollar Tree, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (80.5%)
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of -22.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (71.5%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of Dollar Tree is -0.7%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (12.6%) in the same period.
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of -8.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (19.8%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of Dollar Tree is 39.1%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (17%) in the same period.
  • Looking at volatility in of 39.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (15%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of Dollar Tree is 28.1%, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (11.7%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside risk in of 29.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (10.1%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.59) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of -0.08 of Dollar Tree is smaller, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (1.16) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of -0.27 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Dollar Tree is -0.11, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.86) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is -0.36, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 1.72 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Index of 32 in the last 5 years of Dollar Tree, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (8.43 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 36 , which is greater, thus worse than the value of 3.43 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of Dollar Tree is -64.8 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -61.9 days, which is lower, thus worse than the value of -18.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Dollar Tree is 984 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 713 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (87 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average days under water of 406 days in the last 5 years of Dollar Tree, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (119 days)
  • Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 347 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (20 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Dollar Tree are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.