Ctrip.com International, Ltd. - American Depositary Shares

Symbol changed to CTOM

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The total return over 5 years of Ctrip.com is 25.9%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (67.2%) in the same period.
- Looking at total return, or increase in value in of -21.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (50.7%).

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (10.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% of Ctrip.com is lower, thus worse.
- During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is -7.8%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 14.7% from the benchmark.

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the volatility of 41.3% in the last 5 years of Ctrip.com, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.5%)
- Compared with SPY (12.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 36.7% is larger, thus worse.

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the downside volatility of 37.5% in the last 5 years of Ctrip.com, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.8%)
- Compared with SPY (14.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 36.6% is higher, thus worse.

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of Ctrip.com is 0.05, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.62) in the same period.
- Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of -0.28 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.95).

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Ctrip.com is 0.06, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.56) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is -0.28, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.83 from the benchmark.

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 27 in the last 5 years of Ctrip.com, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (3.99 )
- During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 30 , which is higher, thus worse than the value of 4.09 from the benchmark.

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -57.7 days in the last 5 years of Ctrip.com, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
- Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -57.7 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (-19.3 days).

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 574 days of Ctrip.com is higher, thus worse.
- Compared with SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 574 days is greater, thus worse.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The average days below previous high over 5 years of Ctrip.com is 198 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (42 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 230 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 36 days from the benchmark.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Ctrip.com are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.