Description

Dr. William Bernstein is a physician and neurologist as well as a financial adviser to high net worth individuals. His smart money portfolio comprises the following fund allocation:

 

40% Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade VFSTX (SCJ, SHY)

15% Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX (NYSEARCA:VTI)

10% Vanguard Small Cap Value VISVX (NYSEARCA:VBR)

10% Vanguard Value Index VIVAX (NYSEARCA:VTV)

5% Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock VEIEX (NYSEARCA:VWO)

5% Vanguard European Stock VEURX (NYSEARCA:VEU)

5% Vanguard Pacific Stock VPACX (NYSEARCA:VPL)

5% Vanguard REIT Index VGSIX (RWX, VNQ)

5% Vanguard Small Cap Value NAESX or VTMSX (VB)

 

To summarize:

40% in U.S. equities

10% in international equities

5% in emerging market equities

5% in REITs

40% in fixed income

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return of 34.5% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (98.1%)
  • Compared with SPY (35.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 12.6% is smaller, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 4%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 10.6% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the volatility of 12.1% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (21%)
  • Compared with SPY (17.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 10% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 8.9% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15%)
  • Compared with SPY (12.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 7% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.3 in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.58)
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 0.15 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.46).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.81) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.41 of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (0.66) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.22 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (9.32 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 6.87 of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio is smaller, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 7.46 , which is smaller, thus better than the value of 10 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -24.3 days in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days)
  • Compared with SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -17.2 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 566 days in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
  • Compared with SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 526 days is larger, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (122 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 160 days of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (178 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 199 days is higher, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money Portfolio are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.