Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (150.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 81.3% of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the total return is 18.8%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 32.8% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (20.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 5.9%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 10% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 13.7% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17.8%)
• Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 13.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (17%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Looking at the downside risk of 9.4% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (12.2%)
• Compared with SPY (12%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 9.3% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is 0.74, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (1) in the same period.
• Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.26 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.44).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is 1.09, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (1.46) in the same period.
• Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 0.37 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.62).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (8.3 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 8.73 of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is greater, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 7.22 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 8.65 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -24.4 days of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is larger, thus better.
• Compared with SPY (-22.1 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -19.6 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

• The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is 583 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 429 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (325 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 158 days in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (119 days)
• During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 137 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 89 days from the benchmark.