Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (121.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 69% of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is smaller, thus worse.
• Looking at total return in of 32.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (52.8%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17.3%)
• During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 9.8%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 15.3% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 13.6% of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is lower, thus better.
• Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 13.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (18.4%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• The downside volatility over 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is 9.4%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (12.4%) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 9.4%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 12.4% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.63 in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.83)
• Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 0.53 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.7).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (1.19) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.92 of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is 0.78, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 1.03 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (8.48 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 8.76 of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is greater, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (5.55 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 4.48 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -24.4 days of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is higher, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -14.2 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -18.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is 582 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 112 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 199 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 158 days of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is larger, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (45 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 31 days is smaller, thus better.