Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is 50.8%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (109.2%) in the same period.
• Looking at total return, or performance in of 16% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (37.9%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15.9%)
• Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 5.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (11.4%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

• Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 15.7% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (20.9%)
• Compared with SPY (17.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 13.8% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Looking at the downside deviation of 11.5% in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.9%)
• Compared with SPY (12.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 9.5% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is 0.39, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.64) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 0.19, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.51 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.9) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.53 of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 0.27, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.73 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• Looking at the Ulcer Index of 9.57 in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (9.32 )
• Compared with SPY (10 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 10 is greater, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -28.2 days of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is larger, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -23.7 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -24.5 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio is 583 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 539 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (488 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 162 days in the last 5 years of Dr. Bernstein's No Brainer Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (123 days)
• Looking at average days under water in of 206 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (178 days).