Description

The Margaritaville portfolio was proposed by Scott Burns, a popular Dallas Morning News financial columnist. It consists of one part total stock index, one part international stock index, and one part inflation-protected Treasury securities.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or performance over 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio is 37.9%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (77.4%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return in of 21.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (43.3%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio is 6.6%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (12.1%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (12.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 6.7% is smaller, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 11.5% in the last 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (19%)
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 12.9%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 22% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio is 8.7%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.9%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside risk in of 9.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (16.2%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.51) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.36 of Margaritaville Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (0.46) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.33 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.7) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.48 of Margaritaville Portfolio is smaller, thus worse.
  • Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 0.43 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.63).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio is 4.78 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (5.87 ) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 5.42 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 7.01 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -23.1 days of Margaritaville Portfolio is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -23.1 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -33.7 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 350 days of Margaritaville Portfolio is larger, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 350 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 139 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 91 days in the last 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (37 days)
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 106 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (45 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Margaritaville Portfolio are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.