Description of Margaritaville Portfolio

The Margaritaville portfolio was proposed by Scott Burns, a popular Dallas Morning News financial columnist. It consists of one part total stock index, one part international stock index, and one part inflation-protected Treasury securities.

Statistics of Margaritaville Portfolio (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of % in the last 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (67.1%)
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of % in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (51.3%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of % in the last 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (10.8%)
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is %, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 14.8% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the volatility of % in the last 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.5%)
  • Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of % in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (12.8%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside deviation of % in the last 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.8%)
  • Compared with SPY (14.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of % is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.62) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of of Margaritaville Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (0.96) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of in the last 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.56)
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.84).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio is , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (3.99 ) in the same period.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (4.1 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of days in the last 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of days in the last 5 years of Margaritaville Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (187 days)
  • Compared with SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of days is lower, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (42 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of days of Margaritaville Portfolio is smaller, thus better.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (36 days).

Performance of Margaritaville Portfolio (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of Margaritaville Portfolio
()

Allocations

Returns of Margaritaville Portfolio (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Margaritaville Portfolio are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.