Description

Paul Merriman's Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold. Another Lazy Portfolio that is tracked by MarketWatch.

Merriman describes it: The "ultimate" portfolio starts with the S&P 500 index (SPX) then adds small and equal portions of nine other very carefully selected U.S. and international asset classes, each one being an excellent long-term vehicle for diversifying. When it's properly done, the result is a low-cost portfolio with massive diversification that will take advantage of market opportunities wherever they are, and at about the same risk as that of the S&P 500.

We track the portfolio using Mutual Funds

VFINX=6%, VFISX=12%, VFITX=20%, VEIEX=6%, VGSIX=6%, NAESX=6%, VISVX=6%, VIVAX=6%, VIPSX=8%, VTMGX=12%, VTRIX=12%

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return, or performance over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 28.3%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (105.3%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (31.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 5.7% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 5.1% in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15.5%)
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 1.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (9.6%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 11.4% in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (20.9%)
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 10% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (17.6%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 8.3% of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (12.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 6.9% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 0.23 in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.62)
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of -0.06 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.4).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.32 in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.87)
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is -0.09, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.58 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Index of 7.23 in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (9.32 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 8.25 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 10 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -21 days of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -18.8 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (-24.5 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 628 days of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is higher, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 556 days is greater, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average days below previous high of 190 days in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (123 days)
  • Compared with SPY (177 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 216 days is greater, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.