Description

Paul Merriman's Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold. Another Lazy Portfolio that is tracked by MarketWatch.

Merriman describes it: The "ultimate" portfolio starts with the S&P 500 index (SPX) then adds small and equal portions of nine other very carefully selected U.S. and international asset classes, each one being an excellent long-term vehicle for diversifying. When it's properly done, the result is a low-cost portfolio with massive diversification that will take advantage of market opportunities wherever they are, and at about the same risk as that of the S&P 500.

We track the portfolio using Mutual Funds

VFINX=6%, VFISX=12%, VFITX=20%, VEIEX=6%, VGSIX=6%, NAESX=6%, VISVX=6%, VIVAX=6%, VIPSX=8%, VTMGX=12%, VTRIX=12%

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 28.6%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (94.2%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (27.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 4% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 5.2%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (14.2%) in the same period.
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 1.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (8.6%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 11.3% in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (20.9%)
  • Looking at volatility in of 9.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (17.3%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (15%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 8.3% of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (12.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 6.9% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.56) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.24 of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is smaller, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is -0.12, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.35 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 0.32, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.78) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is -0.17, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 0.5 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 7.24 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (9.32 ) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 8.42 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 10 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -21 days in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days)
  • Compared with SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -18.9 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 628 days in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
  • Compared with SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 628 days is greater, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the average days under water of 191 days in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (123 days)
  • Compared with SPY (180 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 272 days is larger, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.