Paul Merriman's Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold. Another Lazy Portfolio that is tracked by MarketWatch.

Merriman describes it: The "ultimate" portfolio starts with the S&P 500 index (SPX) then adds small and equal portions of nine other very carefully selected U.S. and international asset classes, each one being an excellent long-term vehicle for diversifying. When it's properly done, the result is a low-cost portfolio with massive diversification that will take advantage of market opportunities wherever they are, and at about the same risk as that of the S&P 500.

We track the portfolio using Mutual Funds

VFINX=6%, VFISX=12%, VFITX=20%, VEIEX=6%, VGSIX=6%, NAESX=6%, VISVX=6%, VIVAX=6%, VIPSX=8%, VTMGX=12%, VTRIX=12%

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The total return, or performance over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 46.4%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (121.6%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (64.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 28.1% is lower, thus worse.

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 7.9%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (17.3%) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 8.6%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 18.1% from the benchmark.

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (18.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 9.6% of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is lower, thus better.
- Looking at volatility in of 11.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (22.5%).

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 7.3% of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is lower, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 8.8%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 16.4% from the benchmark.

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.79) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.56 of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is smaller, thus worse.
- Compared with SPY (0.69) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.53 is lower, thus worse.

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 0.75, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (1.09) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is 0.7, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.95 from the benchmark.

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the Ulcer Index of 3.94 in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (5.58 )
- Looking at Downside risk index in of 4.5 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (6.83 ).

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -21 days of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is higher, thus better.
- Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -21 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (-33.7 days).

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 317 days of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is greater, thus worse.
- Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 187 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (139 days).

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The average days under water over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 71 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (33 days) in the same period.
- Looking at average days under water in of 50 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (35 days).

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
[Show Details]

- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.