Description of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold

Paul Merriman's Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold. Another Lazy Portfolio that is tracked by MarketWatch.

Merriman describes it: The "ultimate" portfolio starts with the S&P 500 index SPX then adds small and equal portions of nine other very carefully selected U.S. and international asset classes, each one being an excellent long-term vehicle for diversifying. When it's properly done, the result is a low-cost portfolio with massive diversification that will take advantage of market opportunities wherever they are, and at about the same risk as that of the S&P 500."

We track the portfolio using Mutual Funds

VFINX=6%, VFISX=12%, VFITX=20%, VEIEX=6%, VGSIX=6%, NAESX=6%, VISVX=6%, VIVAX=6%, VIPSX=8%, VTMGX=12%, VTRIX=12%

Statistics of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (68.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 25.4% of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 21.1%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 47.7% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (11%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 6.6%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 13.9% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 7.1% in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.2%)
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 6.6%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 12.4% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside deviation of 7.8% in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.6%)
  • Looking at downside volatility in of 7.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (14%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 0.3, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.64) in the same period.
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.62 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.92).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 0.28, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.58) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 0.55, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.81 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 3.78 in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (3.95 )
  • Compared with SPY (4 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 3.04 is lower, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -12.3 days in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -11.7 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (-19.3 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 329 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 288 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 131 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The average days below previous high over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 95 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (39 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 72 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (33 days).

Performance of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold
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Allocations

Returns of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.