Paul Merriman's Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold. Another Lazy Portfolio that is tracked by MarketWatch.

Merriman describes it: The "ultimate" portfolio starts with the S&P 500 index (SPX) then adds small and equal portions of nine other very carefully selected U.S. and international asset classes, each one being an excellent long-term vehicle for diversifying. When it's properly done, the result is a low-cost portfolio with massive diversification that will take advantage of market opportunities wherever they are, and at about the same risk as that of the S&P 500.

We track the portfolio using Mutual Funds

VFINX=6%, VFISX=12%, VFITX=20%, VEIEX=6%, VGSIX=6%, NAESX=6%, VISVX=6%, VIVAX=6%, VIPSX=8%, VTMGX=12%, VTRIX=12%

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (120.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 46.8% of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is smaller, thus worse.
- Compared with SPY (66.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 26.4% is smaller, thus worse.

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is lower, thus worse.
- Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 8.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (18.5%).

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (18.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 9.7% of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is smaller, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 11.4%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 22.4% from the benchmark.

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The downside risk over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 7.3%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (16.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 8.6% is lower, thus better.

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 0.56, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.78) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.49, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.71 from the benchmark.

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 0.75, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (1.08) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is 0.65, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.98 from the benchmark.

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 3.95 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (5.59 ) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (6.83 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 4.48 is lower, thus better.

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -21 days in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days)
- Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -21 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (-33.7 days).

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the maximum days under water of 317 days in the last 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (139 days)
- Compared with SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 187 days is greater, thus worse.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold is 71 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (33 days) in the same period.
- Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 49 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (35 days).

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.