ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT)

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (87%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of -68.4% of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is smaller, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is -21.7%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 78.1% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of -20.7% of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is smaller, thus worse.
• Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of -7.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (21.3%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 31% of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is greater, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (15.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 26.8% is larger, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 22.6% of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is greater, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (10.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 19.4% is greater, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of -0.75 in the last 5 years of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.63)
• Compared with SPY (1.22) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of -0.39 is smaller, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.92) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of -1.03 of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is lower, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is -0.53, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 1.82 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 59 in the last 5 years of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (8.45 )
• Looking at Ulcer Index in of 20 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (3.38 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is -72.5 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (-18.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -31.2 days is smaller, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 1172 days of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is higher, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 474 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 87 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is 553 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the same period.
• Looking at average days below previous high in of 177 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (18 days).