ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT)

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• Looking at the total return of -69.2% in the last 5 years of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (98%)
• During the last 3 years, the total return is -21.7%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 75.9% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of -21.1% of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is lower, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is -7.9%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 20.9% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 31.8% of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is greater, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (15.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 30.7% is larger, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 23% of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is larger, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (10.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 21.9% is higher, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

• Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of -0.74 in the last 5 years of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.71)
• Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of -0.34 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.17).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (1.04) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of -1.02 of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is lower, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (1.76) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of -0.47 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 56 in the last 5 years of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (8.42 )
• Looking at Ulcer Index in of 29 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (3.62 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is -74.7 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -44.1 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (-18.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 1252 days in the last 5 years of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 738 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 87 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury is 627 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (120 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 366 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 21 days from the benchmark.