US Sector Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• The total return, or performance over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 119.1%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (87.4%) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 27.8%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 26.8% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 17% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Compared with SPY (8.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 8.5% is greater, thus better.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (20.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 12.8% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 12.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (17.3%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (15%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 9.1% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with SPY (12.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 9.2% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.14 in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.52)
• Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.48 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.33).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.73) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.59 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 0.66, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.47 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (9.33 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 5.98 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with SPY (10 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 7.36 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

• The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is -16.4 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -16.4 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -24.5 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 471 days of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 471 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 488 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (122 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 116 days of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Looking at average days under water in of 169 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (179 days).