Description

The Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) provides a good diversification to our other strategies. The strategy invests in the top two performing global sectors. Global sector ETFs often display well-defined, long lasting, up or down trends which makes them a good fit rotation strategies. Another advantage of sector rotation strategies is that even in sideways markets, there are often still individual sectors that are performing well.

This strategy consists of three sub-strategies: GSRS aggressive , GSRS low-volatility and the HEDGE sub-strategies.

Methodology & Assets
  • CUT - Guggenheim Beacon Global Timber Equities
  • KXI - iShares S&P Global Consumer Staples
  • EXI - iShares S&P Global Industrials
  • LIT - Global X Solactive Lithium Index
  • FAN - First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy
  • MOO - Market Vectors Agribusiness
  • NLR - Market Vectors Nuclear Energy
  • GNR - SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources
  • PIO - PowerShares Palisades Global Water
  • GURU - Global X Top Guru Holdings
  • PKW - PowerShares Buyback Achievers
  • IGF - iShares S&P Global Infrastructure Index
  • REMX - Market Vectors Rare Earth Strategic Metals
  • IXC - iShares S&P Global Energy Sector Index
  • RWX - SPDR DJ International Real Estate
  • IXG - iShares S&P Global Financials
  • RXI - iShares S&P Global Consumer Discretionary
  • IXJ - iShares S&P Global Healthcare Sector
  • SEA - Guggenheim Delta Global Shipping Index
  • IXN - iShares S&P Global Technology
  • SLX - Market Vectors Global Steel
  • IXP - iShares S&P Global Telecom Sector
  • SOIL - GlobalX Solactive Fertilizers-Potash
  • KOL - Market Vectors Global Coal
  • TAN - Guggenheim MAC Global Solar Energy
  • FPX - First Trust US IPO ETF
  • JXI - iShares Global Utilities

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the total return of 106.1% in the last 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (58.3%)
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 9.4%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 13.2% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is 15.6%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (9.6%) in the same period.
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to ACWI (4.2%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is 9.4%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (20%) in the same period.
  • Compared with ACWI (16.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 6.2% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (14.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 6.6% of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 4.5%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 11.4% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is 1.39, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (0.36) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 0.09, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.1 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.98 in the last 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (0.49)
  • Compared with ACWI (0.15) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.12 is smaller, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (9.95 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 3.63 of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 3.91 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to ACWI (11 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is -16.8 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (-33.5 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -9.2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to ACWI (-26.4 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 463 days in the last 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (516 days)
  • Compared with ACWI (516 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 463 days is lower, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (133 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 113 days of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 163 days, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 194 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Global Sector Rotation Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.