BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (0.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 61.7% of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (-6.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 9.9% is greater, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 10.1%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (0.1%) in the same period.
• Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 3.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (-2.2%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (6.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 8.7% of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is larger, thus worse.
• Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 6.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to AGG (7.1%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Looking at the downside volatility of 6.4% in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark AGG (5%)
• During the last 3 years, the downside risk is 4.8%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 5% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is 0.88, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.36) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (-0.67) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.11 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.49) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.18 of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is greater, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 0.15, which is larger, thus better than the value of -0.94 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (9.11 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 4.88 of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (11 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 5.68 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is -19.3 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark AGG (-18.4 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -11 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (-17.3 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (1073 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 545 days of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 545 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to AGG (753 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Looking at the average days below previous high of 147 days in the last 5 years of BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (480 days)
• Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 213 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to AGG (377 days).